Could the US have >2 million #COVID19 cases by now?

I'll be astounded if not! We simply don't test.

The ratio of who gets a test vs who should, likely worse than 1 in 10.

So given 220K cases reported ->

>2.2 million COVID cases in US already?

>4 million? Perhaps...

I've not heard too many suggesting such huge numbers. I worry it's because we're stuck. Is infection fatality 1% or is it 0.1%.

We ground our models in data - but when key data is just not accurate (i.e. case counts are not), the models can be off. Sometimes by a lot

To be clear - I hope that there have been 5 million or more cases in the US by now.

This would suggest a lower infection mortality, higher population immunity, and would start to paint a clearer path how to get society back functioning.

To answer this requires serology (antibody test) - tells if you've had the infection in the past.

The immune system is an incredible recording device and serological tests let us tap into those records to answer questions like "how many people have been infected"

Last note - and *speculative* – given very limited testing and relatively short windows of time to capture virus in a nasal swab, I really won't be surprised if even 50x more people have acquired the virus than cases confirmed

If so ~11 million in US could have acquired #COVID19