Why can we put a man on the moon but not provide facemasks for our front line workers?

I have heard this asked on Twitter.

What is the answer?

On 25 May 1961, President John F. Kennedy told Congress: “I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man on the moon and returning him safely to the earth."

After a colossal, concerted national effort, Americans landed on the moon, just 8 years later.

It was an enormous challenge.

But it was clear from the outset:

what the aim was,
how to judge success, and
the need for expenditure and focus on the task.

In contrast, you and I, if we are being honest, did not expect the Coronavirus outbreak in China to come to our home countries with the ferocity that it has or shortly will do.

In 8 years' time, if we don't have lots of good filter-masks easily accessible to all developed countries, we can quite rightly be disgusted.

(Why should we expect poor countries to have filter-masks? We know they don't all have clean water, and scarcely bat an eyelid.)

Right now, how are "governments" supposed to provide millions of filter-masks for healthcare workers?

OK, so why would those companies have tens of millions of masks available to sell to the government?

Who actually in the companies makes them?

Think about the simplest SURGICAL masks. Not Covid-filter-masks, but the surgical ones that protect us against splashes of blood etc.

Essentially zero protection against viruses floating in aerosols.

How many do you think are used per million population per day, normally?

If you ticked can't estimate, you are the problem. You've been to school. You've learned reading, writing and arithmetic. You CAN estimate it.

(If you still think you can't, stop commenting on public affairs: you have correctly diagnosed permanent ignorance.)

Let's do an estimate, just for fun.

Let's assume that under NORMAL conditions, only doctors and nurses wear surgical masks.

About 1% of the UK population is a doctor or nurse.

Many Doctors and Nurses never use a face mask under normal circumstances. Let's say 75%, who work in outpatients. (If they wear a mask 1 or 2 days per 365, that is almost zero)

In hospitals, surgical teams probably get through (let's say) 10 masks per day on average, but they form at a guess what proportion of the 25% in-patient workers?

So about 10% of 25% (in-patient) of 1% of the population (Drs and nurses) uses about 10 masks per day.

How many masks per million population per day, therefore?

I am getting 2.5% * 10% (which comes to 0.25%), times 1 million.

That is 2,500 masks per million population.

Surgical masks. Which stop blood being splashed into your nose and mouth. But not airborne water droplets which you simply breathe in from the side of the mask.

Those of you who are doctors and nurses, think of the number of times you have tied a surgical mask to your face in the past.

Now think of the number of times you have fitted a close-fitting respirator mask, and tested it for airtightness etc.

You know, with the nozzly thing that you breathe through.

OK.

How many usual surgical masks, per filter-mask, in your lifetime experience? What is the ratio? Pick the closest

Surgical (cheapo) : Filter-mask (nozzly thing)

Well, my ratio is 100 : 0.

I have never used a filter mask before. My cardiology friends I have asked, have never done so either.

Let's be charitable and assume there some people beetling around who do use them normally. Let's say 1 in a thousand?

So how many FILTER-masks per million population do we estimate are used per day, under normal circumstances?

Now we want our front line workers to all have filter masks. Sounds reasonable. I want that.

But we may also need to change between patients when needed, e.g. if we got close. So perhaps 10 a day? (On average, some less some more)

Lots of healthcare staff are coming in to work on the pandemic. Assume 1% of the country. (There are plenty non-doctor-nurses who are doing front line work in hospitals; but also there are some Drs/Nurses not in the front line.)

How many filter masks needed per million per day?

Yup.

100,000 filter masks per day.

By what factor is this higher than our normal estimated usage of filter masks. Remember we estimated GENEROUSLY that normal usage is 2.5 (filter masks per million population per day).

The world's manufacturer is China.

Unfortunately Hunan Province is the place in China that makes the most masks, and it got screwed by the first wave of Corona.

Doubly unfortunately, US is in a trade war with China.

So we are asking for something we have never asked before.

(A) A 40,000-fold increase in production of an item

(B) In a province most hit by Coronavirus

(C) Of the country earliest hit by Coronavirus

(D) While we officially hate them

(E) And by the way please transport them to us, thank you very much

(F) And as soon as possible please

(G) Also on the flight back you can take your Huawei routers home with you. We hate you Chinese bastards.

So THAT is why we don't have masks in enough numbers.

Please stop blaming "the government". Use your brain. Do some estimates.

Stop comparing this to the moon landing.
It only advertises our own stupidity.

Incidentally I am yet again stunned by how many people have difficulty with the arithmetic above.

Democracy is only as good as the applied intellect of the people voting.

DO NOT expect the government to be any better than you. You have hired them and told them what they should focus on. They did that.

Never a truer word was said 8-)

Hi Pranev.

Obviously the government are lying.
But no point telling a liar "Hey, you are lying!".
They just deny it.

The problem is us. If they spoke plainly they would get shafted by the press and stupid people in general.

So they have to lie. That's life.