Midlands outbreak. The authorities
'believed to be examining transmission patterns to see if anything unusual is happening in the Midlands but it could be weeks or months before that analysis becomes clear.'

'months' https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/03/coronavirus-hospitals-west-midlands-full-capacity-by-next-weekend

2/ 'Officials in the region believe its number of cases is tracking about two weeks behind London.'
Another source said 'T there were only 240 ventilators in the West Midlands and that the region would need 2,500 by 11 April'

3/ IF the peak was Easter weekend 'One source familiar with one of the larger ventilator projects said that, despite the best efforts of high-end manufacturers, the target was “nowhere near” being met. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/03/nhs-faces-shortfall-of-ventilators-as-manufacturers-struggle-coronavirus

“You just can’t do this sort of stuff overnight, which is what they’re trying to do. But if there’s a 2nd wave in the winter, we’ll have a lot more by then” Another source: "“We should have started doing this weeks ago..." ( more at the link, these comments on vents apply all UK)