Biggest thing I’ve learned in the last 2 months: the basic currency of civilized life is time in a crisis, and it is *very* expensive

Years of foresight work buy you days to weeks at most in a crisis

Millions/billions of preparedness dollars buy you months at most

...

And all it takes is one fool in the wrong place at the wrong time to entirely waste all the time bought.

On the flip side “there are decades where nothing happens, and weeks where decades happen”... so a week bought for crisis time and defended well against fools is worth a decade.

So if you weigh the value of time with exponential correctness, the effort/reward is worth it

This has also given me a very fresh appreciation of the OODA loop.irs not billions of dollars, it’s not N95 masks.

It’s time.

Tempo tempo tempo. Every decision you make a day or week earlier than others gains you OODA time.

That grim joke about the lion/bear works with the virus.

For many things you don’t have to outrun the virus, you just have to outrun the other guy.

Hate it or grimly exist in it, the ops reality everywhere is acquiring this dynamic.

One lesson I always keep in mind us how in WW2 towards the end, when Nazi defeat was assured, the race to Berlin was mostly about setting up an advantageous opening position for Cold War. Time again. Those last few weeks of “allies” competing for a slice of Germany shaped decades

You should be prepared for this. When the tide finally turns globally, and it’s clear the virus can be beaten (treatment, vaccine, whatever), *then* the real ugliness will start as parties race to establish positions for the post-Corona world.

Another way to appreciate this is just how screwed you’d get if a second crisis hits while a first is unfolding. Could California handle an earthquake now? Could you personally handle say an identity theft episode with all customer service logjammed? That’s a time crisis.

Our normal use of time in a functioning society assumes a lot of other processes operating nominally, with ordinary wait times etc. A “normal accident” is 2 strikes and you’re out. 3 and you’re dead. If the virus were a human adversary it would try to actively open up 2nd fronts

So a lot of preparedness culture that we instinctively understand is about tightening 2nd-crisis loops and reeling them in to protect them. Hence stockpiles, cash reserves wind-up/liquidation of assets. You’re protecting what little time you have against leaks.

I’m pretty slow-moving at most times, but I do try to practice what I preach a little in crisis situations, by accelerating decisions, exercising options early, paying a premium for time etc. It’s very stressful for me, and not my natural mode. My normal mode is daydreaming.

I spend a lot of time improving my understanding of this stuff because I actually hate being in situations where I have to act in such intensity modes. I’m not an adrenaline junkie. I’m the opposite, whatever that is. The better I understand it, the less time I have to be in it.

I don’t get high intensity always-at-110% people

I hate it when I have to spike/surge past 70% intensity. even for a day or two. My ideal intensity is 50%. Half-dead is a very pleasant state of being.