#COVID19 Uk/Sweden modeling comparison
Sweden has chosen not to lockdown based on different assumptions on the number of cv patients who will end up in intensive care https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/03/coronavirus-swedish-experiment-could-prove-britain-wrong/

The Swedes suppose patients needing ICU will be close to 5% of ppl hospitalised for cv and don’t feel the need of extending their ICU capacity.
The UK was driven by modeling from Imperial College supposing up to 30% of people hospitalised for cv will need intensive care.

The vast ramping up of ICU in the UK in recent weeks (8 times more) was driven by this IC modelling, based on the 30% .
Amid fears that the NHS would not be able to cope without this expansion, Britain was placed in lockdown to give the health service time to reach capacity.

So far in UK around 9% of cv patients in hospital have died, suggesting that at least 9% of patients needed intensive care treatment, but not so many have recovered after being in ICU.

The chief epidemiologist who is leading the strategy in Sweden is Anders Tegnell. He has been scathing of the Imperial modelling that set Britain on the path to lockdown. It might be right, but it might also be terribly wrong,we are a bit surprised that it's had such an impact”.

The former state epidemiologist, Prof Emeritus Johan Giesecke, is in agreement with Mr Tegnell, stating recently: "lack of reliable knowledge explains why countries do things differently: nobody knows and they choose measures on the basis of shaky data or for political reasons”

“All models require that you enter numeric values for different parameters - values that we often miss and must estimate or guess." Crucially, Mr Tegnell is releasing all the data on a daily basis so that it will soon become apparent how well modelling is mirrored in real data.

Sweden is believed to be a couple of weeks behind Britain, having recorded around 6,000 cases and 333 deaths - 10 times fewer that the UK - but experts there are not expecting a big peak, or much more demand than usual.

Mr Tegnell has said it is inevitable the disease will sweep through a large proportion of the population, and allowing it to do so could prevent a surge in demand, which could cripple their health services.

Sweden is also about to start releasing figures that show how many people died "from" coronavirus rather than "with" coronavirus (as in the British statistics). Prof Ferguson of Imperial College said up to 2/3 of deaths of people with cv would likely have happened in 2020 anyway.

So it will be interesting to find out just how many can actually be attributed to the virus, a figure that Britain is unlikely to find out before annual mortality figures are released early next year.

The Swedes believe that changing how the figures are reported will cut the number of people dying from coronavirus by 4/5 and slash the death rate to well below 1%, perhaps even lower than seasonal flu.

So far, of those needing intensive care, some 76% had underlying health conditions, with high blood pressure being the biggest risk factor. In UK it could end up being even higher: just 6% of people who died on Friday, 3 April had no reported health problems.