At a press conference today, @MayorBowser presented the forecasting model that DC is relying on which showed that ~94,000 DC residents will contract COVID-19 with a peak in late June. This was an irresponsible decision with potentially substantial impacts. Some reasons why:

The model, which assumes a 31% reduction in contact, can most generously be called pessimistic, and most likely represents the worst case scenario. It doesn't align with the experiences of other countries or many other models.

Models are wholly driven by the assumptions built into them. Some may be close to reality, all will be wrong. As Anthony Fauci recently said, “I’ve looked at all the models. I’ve spent a lot of time on the models. They don’t tell you anything. You can’t really rely upon models."

Small businesses are continuously trying to decide if it’s worth it to stay open or plan to reopen once things can return to "normal". One to two months of lock-down is more than many can bear, and the prospect of enduring this through June may lead owners to call it quits now.

Intimating that the current measures could last through June may cause people to be less compliant now when it matters most. The thinking goes - if one in seven people will get this even with these oppressive constraints, then what’s the point of trying?

Mental health is a serious concern that must be considered. In a recent survey, 45% of adults said the pandemic has affected their mental health with 19% saying it has had a major impact. It’s dangerous for the mayor to paint the most grim picture. https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/coronavirus-is-harming-the-mental-health-of-tens-of-millions-of-people-in-us-new-poll-finds/2020/04/02/565e6744-74ee-11ea-85cb-8670579b863d_story.html

Based on today’s press conference, DC agencies and institutions are already planning for an order that may cause them to continue working from home (or not at all) through June or July, a heavy burden for some that may or may not be necessary.

If the mayor was trying to show a worst case scenario for hospital planning purposes as has been speculated, she should have presented it to hospital executives and not the public.