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Here’s a thread on the current status of LA’s COVID-19 outbreak.
Summary: daily deaths and cases are increasing, but the growth is relatively slow so far. We’re also now probably seeing the effects of social distancing: it’s working, and we *must* keep it up as hard as we can.
Summary: daily deaths and cases are increasing, but the growth is relatively slow so far. We’re also now probably seeing the effects of social distancing: it’s working, and we *must* keep it up as hard as we can.
Since last Friday, LA has seen 3101 new confirmed cases, 701 new hospitalizations, and 63 new deaths. All totals approximately tripled in that time.
We’re likely to see the daily increase grow for weeks. What’s important is the *rate* of growth, and keeping it low as possible.
We’re likely to see the daily increase grow for weeks. What’s important is the *rate* of growth, and keeping it low as possible.
COVID-19 cases have increased by about 25% per day over the course of the pandemic in LA, and less than that over the last week.
While we continue to be up against a severe lack of testing, meaning there are many more cases than we know, this is a sign that growth isn’t spiking.
While we continue to be up against a severe lack of testing, meaning there are many more cases than we know, this is a sign that growth isn’t spiking.
Another positive sign: the number of new reported COVID deaths in LA County is lower than it was yesterday.
This doesn’t mean we’ve hit the peak -- we haven’t. But it strongly suggests slow growth. By this point in Italy’s outbreak, new deaths were increasing by 100s every day.
This doesn’t mean we’ve hit the peak -- we haven’t. But it strongly suggests slow growth. By this point in Italy’s outbreak, new deaths were increasing by 100s every day.
LA County instituted shelter-in-place on March 19th. Public spaces have continued to be closed since then.
That means social distancing has been enforced for about two weeks. We’re now almost certainly seeing far fewer cases and deaths than we would be without it.
It’s working.
That means social distancing has been enforced for about two weeks. We’re now almost certainly seeing far fewer cases and deaths than we would be without it.
It’s working.
One thing I'm troubled by: deaths in LA County amount to a disproportionately large number of deaths in CA.
Without stats on who has died, we can’t say why -- but I wonder what bearing class and race has on the discrepancy. https://www.latimes.com/projects/california-coronavirus-cases-tracking-outbreak/
Without stats on who has died, we can’t say why -- but I wonder what bearing class and race has on the discrepancy. https://www.latimes.com/projects/california-coronavirus-cases-tracking-outbreak/
The most vulnerable in LA are still at the highest risk in this pandemic -- people who are homeless and those living in poverty.
The policies put in place by our city leaders - before COVID-19 and now - have been tragically insufficient to protect them.
The policies put in place by our city leaders - before COVID-19 and now - have been tragically insufficient to protect them.
I want to share this diary entry that an NYC doctor wrote for Slate.
It's not easy to read, but it's crucial to understand why rigorous social distancing continues to be so critical.
https://slate.com/technology/2020/04/coronavirus-new-york-er-doctors-log.html
It's not easy to read, but it's crucial to understand why rigorous social distancing continues to be so critical.
https://slate.com/technology/2020/04/coronavirus-new-york-er-doctors-log.html
As the tragedy in New York unfolds and signs of severe outbreaks appear across the US, LA has a moral obligation to keep its social distancing regime as rigorous as possible.
Resources are desperately needed elsewhere -- let’s be a city that can share with places that need help.
Resources are desperately needed elsewhere -- let’s be a city that can share with places that need help.
