Some good news. U.S. testing rose today, to 139,613 tests/day.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18oVRrHj3c183mHmq3m89_163yuYltLNlOmPerQ18E8w/htmlview#

The daily positive test ratio has generally been trending up, which is bad, because it indicates that testing isn't keeping up with the epidemic. Cases have exploded over the past two weeks while testing has increased more slowly.

For reference, South Korea usually has a bit less than a 1% daily positive test ratio. The lowest we've achieved is about 10 times that, and we're currently around 25 times that.

So either we need to multiply our testing by 25x (which is impossible), or lower our # of new cases.

In other words, even with a significantly increased test capacity, we won't be able to do #TestAndTrace until lockdowns lower our daily new cases to a much lower level. Optimistically, that might be 6 weeks from now.

But some cities and states can get started earlier.

States like Minnesota and cities like San Francisco have low enough and stable enough case numbers where they might be able to get started with #TestAndTrace very soon, provided they can secure A) enough tests out of the national pool, and B) a good contact tracing app.

But for #TestAndTrace to allow us to reopen most of the U.S. economy, we will have to wait until lockdowns reduce infections to less than 1% of our test capacity. For which we're probably looking at June, to be honest.

(end)

Oh, and one caveat to this thread: Some states don't report negative test results, or only report a small % of their negative test results.

Thus, the picture isn't *quite* as grim as I'm making it out to be, and a bit more testing is getting done than this graph shows.