Once again, some cause for optimism in the US. Curve of 3-day moving average of deaths in the US starting to grow at a decreasing rate, moving away from exponential growth. At http://covidtracking.com , we also see a strong flattening in the death rate. 1/n

I continue to believe that the wisest policy response will be. to begin removing people from total lockdown sooner than later. One way this may happen: continue to quarantine people 60+. Allow people below 60 to return to work and semi-normal life while maintaining 2/n

social distancing as much as possible and using masks. Continue bans against groups of 10 or more. Give more freedom to those of any age who can demonstrate antibodies--certificate of immunity. Restaurants and others card guests to prove they are under 60. Encourage 3/n

people who can work from home to continue. to do so. But allow younger, less virtual workers to get back to work. Continue to relentlessly press for treatment options. I think the political pressure for this kind of staggered response will grow as self-isolation stretches 4/n

on. Plus Trump and many governors will find this to be an appealing alternative to indefinite lockdown which has unknown fiscal and cultural costs. You cannot persist in having 30% of the population on the dole. For starters, not obvious that govt can get money into the 5/n

hands of those who most need it. If social and emotional disruption continues for a month or longer, gets harder and harder to sustain quality of life for the large swaths of the population who are not getting govt assistance or who get very tired of living at home. 6/n

Maybe the staggering starts with people below the age of 30, who to date have very very low death rates. This will be especially appealing if plasma treatment turns out to be highly effective though I do not if this is scalable. Underlying this presumption of how things 7/n

will play out is that you can't spend $2.2T every 2 months and not start to have potentially unpleasant results on fiscal stability. Also unlikely that even that sum makes everyone whole. Too many people will be left out. What will they do in the meanwhile? 8/n

The bottom line is that I think sustaining lockdown for all but food supply chain and health care and those who can work at home is going to be increasingly difficult across a number of dimensions. I worry that the veneer of civilization is thin. All of this requires not just 9/n

a flattening of the death rate but dramatic reductions especially in NY and other states that still have high levels of death rate. My prediction is that as that level falls, there will be political pressure to ease lockdown for all of the above reasons. I am just hoping the 10/n

latest numbers are the beginning of better news for physical health and then mental and political health will up for discussion. Let's hope for a good weekend for everyone. Stay home. If you have to go out, wear a mask or a scarf. 11/11