14/ The mean daily case growth rate had _already_ been declining at this point. There was no additional decline in mean daily case growth after implementation of statewide restrictions on internal movement ("lockdowns"):

15/ We ********** do not ********** think that the take-home message of the previous figure is that "lockdowns don't work". It is very difficult to identify the independent effect of lockdowns. Probably some people who are smarter than us can figure that out.

16/ The effects we estimate are consistent with what can theoretically be expected to result from social distancing and other behavioral interventions-- such as described in this @medRxiv preprint by @thimui_pham and a team from @juliuscenter @UMCUtrecht: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.12.20034827v2

17/ Our estimates are also consistent with what has historically been observed (cf. the Hatchett/Mecher/ @mlipsitch paper referenced at the beginning of this thread).

18/ LOTS of limitations: social distancing intensified as epidemic worsened, some counties initiated social distancing before state govts, states initiated lockdowns after other social distancing measures, SUTVA violations, incr'd surveillance & testing, less "post" obs time...

19/ I'll conclude with a word from @NIAIDNews director Dr Anthony Fauci: "If you look at what's going on in this country, I just don’t understand why we're not doing that [ie., implementing a federally mandated stay at home order]" https://twitter.com/AC360/status/1245875533113671685?s=20

20/ That's all for now. I'll wrap up the thread and post the medRxiv link once it's live!