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14/ The mean daily case growth rate had _already_ been declining at this point. There was no additional decline in mean daily case growth after implementation of statewide restrictions on internal movement ("lockdowns"):
15/ We ********** do not ********** think that the take-home message of the previous figure is that "lockdowns don& #39;t work". It is very difficult to identify the independent effect of lockdowns. Probably some people who are smarter than us can figure that out.
16/ The effects we estimate are consistent with what can theoretically be expected to result from social distancing and other behavioral interventions-- such as described in this @medRxiv preprint by @thimui_pham and a team from @juliuscenter @UMCUtrecht: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.12.20034827v2">https://www.medrxiv.org/content/1...
17/ Our estimates are also consistent with what has historically been observed (cf. the Hatchett/Mecher/ @mlipsitch paper referenced at the beginning of this thread).
18/ LOTS of limitations: social distancing intensified as epidemic worsened, some counties initiated social distancing before state govts, states initiated lockdowns after other social distancing measures, SUTVA violations, incr& #39;d surveillance & testing, less "post" obs time...
19/ I& #39;ll conclude with a word from @NIAIDNews director Dr Anthony Fauci: "If you look at what& #39;s going on in this country, I just don’t understand why we& #39;re not doing that [ie., implementing a federally mandated stay at home order]" https://twitter.com/AC360/status/1245875533113671685?s=20">https://twitter.com/AC360/sta...
