Read on Twitter
1/ If you cannot draw me a picture of a can opener, I will not listen to your macroeconomic predictions.
2/ I love the phrase "Reality has a surprising amount of detail."
As a simple example, take out a piece of paper and try to draw a diagram for how a can opener works.
As a simple example, take out a piece of paper and try to draw a diagram for how a can opener works.
3/ A can opener is not that complicated, you’ve probably used one hundreds or thousands of times in your life.
And if you are thinking “of course I know how a can opener works” then I really challenge you to actually draw the diagram.
H/t https://meaningness.com/understanding ">https://meaningness.com/understan...
And if you are thinking “of course I know how a can opener works” then I really challenge you to actually draw the diagram.
H/t https://meaningness.com/understanding ">https://meaningness.com/understan...
4/ I have tried this and had other people try it and so far I have never seen anyone that actually could accurately draw a diagram for precisely how a can opener works.
5/ This is why I love the phrase that “Reality has a SURPRISING amount of detail.”
It is not merely that reality has a lot of detail, but that the amount of detail is continually surprising.
h/t http://johnsalvatier.org/blog/2017/reality-has-a-surprising-amount-of-detail">https://johnsalvatier.org/blog/2017...
It is not merely that reality has a lot of detail, but that the amount of detail is continually surprising.
h/t http://johnsalvatier.org/blog/2017/reality-has-a-surprising-amount-of-detail">https://johnsalvatier.org/blog/2017...
6/ Almost everyone thinks they know how a can opener works but no one actually does.
7/ This phenomenon doesn’t apply to kitchen appliances, but basically everything everywhere.
If we take it at face value, "reality has a surprising amount of detail” implies that no one understands how anything works but everyone thinks they understand how everything works.
If we take it at face value, "reality has a surprising amount of detail” implies that no one understands how anything works but everyone thinks they understand how everything works.
8/ It is truly astonishing to me the number of people who believe they are capable of predicting macroeconomic reactions to different policy decisions BUT CAN NOT DRAW A CAN OPENER.
9/ The economy is 100x, 1000x, or 10000x more complicated than a can opener and yet this same illusion of understanding persists.
10/ I like Tyler Cowen’s notion of meta-rationality.
True “rationality” means recognizing the limits of our own understanding and knowing when to defer to experts (and which experts to defer to)
Or simply admitting to not knowing.
True “rationality” means recognizing the limits of our own understanding and knowing when to defer to experts (and which experts to defer to)
Or simply admitting to not knowing.
11/ I think most people would agree with the notion, but still vastly overestimate the limits of their own understanding.
When reality has a surprising amount of detail, a little bit of epistemic humility goes a long way.
/rant
When reality has a surprising amount of detail, a little bit of epistemic humility goes a long way.
/rant
