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How will the pandemic affect solar, storage, wind & demand in the U.S.? Some new numbers from the analysts at WoodMac. Thread:
U.S. utility solar: Every step of the segment's supply chain and project development could to come to a halt for several weeks. The industry would then see upwards of 5 GWdc of the U.S. utility-scale market pushed to H2 2020 or even 2021. ( https://bit.ly/2RboNTj )
U.S. distributed solar: Residential solar is hurting right now. WoodMac is revising its U.S. 2020 residential forecast downward by between 23% to 40% depending on the course of events. Job losses are ongoing. ( https://bit.ly/3dSntyf )
U.S. utility-scale storage: A 20% downside is expected for utility-scale storage in the states. Downstream issues ranging from ports to transportation, labor, construction availability, and permitting will delay 2020 deployments. ( https://www.woodmac.com/reports/power-markets-coronavirus-impacts-20-downside-expected-for-us-ftm-energy-storage-market-in-2020-399050/)
U.S. behind-the-meter storage: The segment will install 31% less capacity in 2020 than we had previously forecast. Larger non-resi projects will face difficulties wrapping up permitting, commissioning and interconnection in the context of coronavirus. ( https://bit.ly/2X5X8a0 )
Wind: Right now Illinois is the most concerning state based on the infection rate and potential for a shortened install season due to weather. Global wind additions in 2020 are expected to decline by 4.9GW compared to previous Wood Mackenzie projections. ( https://bit.ly/346kVYO )
North American power markets/demand: Our baseline view yields lower power demand and power prices across North American power markets. For example, in PJM we expect peak demand levels will be reduced by nearly 9GW in 2020 and 4.7GW in 2021. ( https://bit.ly/2V20bNE )
For context, our baseline view now projects a sharp recession over the next several quarters, with recovery starting in 2021.
We're also doing a weekly coronavirus update, released on Tuesdays, that spans all these sectors plus EVs. You can download some highlights from this week's for free here: https://bit.ly/3bQ9tU0
