Yesterday, Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee ( @GovBillLee) ordered Tennesseans to stay home, saying cell phone tracking data helped convince him to take stronger action to stop coronavirus. I dug into that data, wanting to understand what he saw. This is a thread. https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/health/2020/04/03/coronavirus-tennessee-gov-bill-lee-shelter-in-place-cell-phone-data/5102643002/

First, it is important to know Lee did not want to do this. At every step of the virus outbreak, he has resisted ordering Tennesseans around. Lee, a small-government Republican, said he believed in advising, not mandating. But, as the outbreak grew, he had to change his tactics.

On Monday, Lee issued an executive order “strongly urging” Tennesseans to stay inside. Many people didn’t think this was enough. On Thursday, Lee changed his urging to a mandate. He said he was compelled by traffic and cell phone data showing too few people were moving too much.

Lee specifically referenced data released by @Unacast, a company that collects and analyzes cell-phone GPS data. Most of you don’t realize companies like this are collecting your phone movements. Unacast recently started using this data "for good" to track social distancing.

On Thursday, I was stunned to hear the word Unacast come out of the governor’s mouth. Why? Because for the past 3 days I'd been quietly working on a story about Uncast data. I was nearly ready to publish. And now I realized the governor was studying at the same stuff.

So, what does that data show? Good and bad. In Tennessee’s major cities, phones – and presumably the people who carry those phones – are moving much less. Like, 50% less. This is a rough measurement of people staying home to stop the virus.

But, in rural areas? Not so much. In many Tennessee counties, travel has dropped only a little. As of Wednesday, Unacast data showed 50+ counties where travel had dropped less than 25%. As of today, 16 counties are still less than 25%.

Now, some extra movement should be expected in rural areas. By definition, things are farther apart. Essential travel will be longer for rural residents than city residents. And yet, these numbers are still worrisome.

For example, as of today, travel in Marion County, west of Chattanooga, has dropped only 1%, per Unacast data. Marion County has reported 13 cases of coronavirus and one death.

I learned some other stuff from this data too. When did travel drop the most? March 11. What happened on March 11? EVERYTHING. The stock market plummeted. Trump banned some travel from Europe. The NBA season died. Tom Hanks got sick.

I think, when we all look back on this in the future, March 11 will be the day this got real for a lot of Americans.

What else did I learn? Closing schools mattered. A lot. Besides March 11, the biggest drops in travel occurred after Tennessee cities closed their schools. I suspect this is because lots of parents were forced to suddenly start working from home.

What about stay-at-home orders? They matter too. In Nashville, Memphis and Knoxville, a pattern emerges. After these orders, there is a one-day rise in movement, then a big drop. I think people went out to buy supplies, then bunkered at home. That is what I did.

There are a lot more details in this story, plus voices of some prominent doctors with important things to say. Please read it and share it. Your readership means the world to me.

Finally, as always, I’m asking you to subscribe to The @Tennessean. Since disaster struck our state, we’ve made almost all of our journalism free. I believe wholeheartedly in that decision, but I worry it will come at a cost.

So, if you can, please subscribe. Subscribe to the @TimesFreePress too. And donate to the @NashvilleScene and @WPLN. And watch @NC5. Please. Maybe more than ever, America needs journalism. And journalism needs you. https://tennessean.subscriber.services/?GA_network=g&GA_device=c&GA_campaign=1595921207&GA_adgroup=60340171095&GA_target&GA_placement&GA_creative=302471124437&GA_extension&GA_keyword=tennessean%20subscriptions&GA_loc_physical_ms=9013139&GA_landingpage=https%3A%2F%2Ftennessean.subscriber.services