Q1 year-over-year change in US seaborne imports by country (thru 3/21)

Through the first 3 weeks of March Taiwan and Vietnam shipments to the US were +20%. Those are about to go to zero due to lock-downs.

60% of Chinese textile companies are reporting orders that are less than half their normal levels.

Here are YoY US seaborne imports for some top apparel retailers

50% YoY declines in imports from Walmart, Target and H&M is wild.

A bunch of textile factories in SE Asia are going to go under in short order. These factories can't just manage through this kind of volume drop overnight.

Most of these factories work on mid single-digit op margins with meaningful fixed costs and minimal working capital.

They also don't have governments that can bail them out even if they wanted to (outside of China).

Supply chains are getting smashed and they aren't just going to snap right back even if/when demand does. That's not how these things work.

I'll bump this thread in a couple months when someone writes the post about how broken SE Asia supply chains are.

cc: @TheStalwart @LJKawa @bizboyle @sdonnan