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Q1 year-over-year change in US seaborne imports by country (thru 3/21)
Through the first 3 weeks of March Taiwan and Vietnam shipments to the US were +20%. Those are about to go to zero due to lock-downs.
60% of Chinese textile companies are reporting orders that are less than half their normal levels.
Here are YoY US seaborne imports for some top apparel retailers
50% YoY declines in imports from Walmart, Target and H&M is wild.
A bunch of textile factories in SE Asia are going to go under in short order. These factories can& #39;t just manage through this kind of volume drop overnight.
Most of these factories work on mid single-digit op margins with meaningful fixed costs and minimal working capital.
They also don& #39;t have governments that can bail them out even if they wanted to (outside of China).
Supply chains are getting smashed and they aren& #39;t just going to snap right back even if/when demand does. That& #39;s not how these things work.
Supply chains are getting smashed and they aren& #39;t just going to snap right back even if/when demand does. That& #39;s not how these things work.
I& #39;ll bump this thread in a couple months when someone writes the post about how broken SE Asia supply chains are.
cc: @TheStalwart @LJKawa @bizboyle @sdonnan
cc: @TheStalwart @LJKawa @bizboyle @sdonnan
