Read on Twitter
There seems to be a real battle on Twitter, even among my followers, about this “died of” #COVID19 vs “died with” it.
The difference matters enormously. So its worth some time to consider the evidence
1/n
The difference matters enormously. So its worth some time to consider the evidence
1/n
First, because #COVID19 is a notifiable disease (a policy decision), everyone who dies after a positive #COVID19 test is counted in the statistics. We do not know in what fraction of cases the #COVID19 symptoms contributed to the death
2/n
2/n
But importantly, it means we are handling the reporting of these deaths DIFFERENTLY from flu (which is not a notifiable disease). There, clinicians record flu as the cause of death only when it is considered a major contributory factor
3/n
3/n
This means that when we look at the statistics for #COVID19 versus flu deaths we are comparing apples with oranges.
In one case, we see EVERYONE who was test positive who then died. In the other, we only see the “extra” deaths where flu was a major contributory factor
4/n
In one case, we see EVERYONE who was test positive who then died. In the other, we only see the “extra” deaths where flu was a major contributory factor
4/n
We dont know what the number of #COVID19 deaths would be if we used the same reporting as for flu (or most other causes of death) - but it will be less than the headline figure since at least some died of something else while having #COVID19
5/n
5/n
The second relevant point is that we need to look at overall death rates to put the number in context. We expected around 45,000 deaths in the UK in March 2020, so even if the 2,500 #COVID19 deaths were all “extra” they would account for just over a 5% increase
6/n
6/n
While thats a small increase death rates year-on-year are pretty consistent, and we would be able to see that in the statistics. The fact we dont see an uptick in overall deaths suggests a material fraction of those deaths would have occured IN MARCH anyway
7/n
7/n
We cant put an exact number on it that way, because the baseline death rates are still noisy, but the true number of extra deaths in March due to #COVID19 is not materially different from the typical number due to seasonal flu (which we dont even notice, most years)
8/n
8/n
This doesnt suggest that “lockdown wasnt necessary” - our actions were to prevent this ramping up into something much worse.
Whether it would have done or not is an interesting debate, and one that depends on looking AFTERWARDS at things like serology
9/n
Whether it would have done or not is an interesting debate, and one that depends on looking AFTERWARDS at things like serology
9/n
But it does provide some context that what we are seeing, even in Italy and Spain, and certainly in the UK, is not cataclysmic. Rather, at a population level, it is undetectable if we didnt have a PCR test for the virus!
10/10
10/10
