Community spread is here. Community testing is not. Using confirmed cases as your guide to what's happening is limiting your view to the tiny sliver of the population that's been tested. /1

8.7% of Missourians tested for Covid-19 have been positive. (1,834 of 21,191). Does that tell us anything about what the positive rate amount the untested population is? I'm not an epidemiologist, so I don't know. But over 6 million haven't been tested /2 https://health.mo.gov/living/healthcondiseases/communicable/novel-coronavirus/results.php

So the infection rate among non-tested people in Missouri doesn't have to be much to create a lot of cases. For example, the positive cases among the untested would equal the confirmed number (1,834) if only 0.03% (3 in 10,000) were positive. /3

This matters because the governor is guiding his decisions as if the number of confirmed cases reflects the number of cases there are. Those untested who have virus are just as contagious as confirmed positives! /4 https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article241661296.html

The bottom line is the virus is easily spread, people who don't know they have it are infecting others, and there's the possibility of limiting the spread by keeping everyone at home. The governor ( @GovParsonMO) needs to issue a statewide stay-at-home order now. /x