Regarding the accuracy of COVID19 models...

1. I guarantee you they will be 'wrong'. Every prediction by a model made in February has been changed by our behavior. It is somewhat like the adage 'No battle plan survives first contact with the enemy'.

2. Blaming Fauci, Birx, and other scientists and physicians is dumb. They are simply giving you an 'educated guess'. This is why they aren't in charge...people you elected are. The buck stops with them. Especially the President and Governors.

3. Using models to predict specific # morbidity/mortality is less helpful than using it to predict when/where peak disease will hit. This is about maximizing usage of limited resources in most efficient manner...not about a contest for guessing the # of jelly beans in the jar.

4. So when you hear people say "This model predicted X number of deaths by today" that misses the point entirely.

Now, if it predicts 10k deaths, and you get only 1...that is significant.

If it predicted 100 deaths, and get 50...that is not significant for planning purposes.

5. In short, this is all about logistics. It is exactly like a battle plan. You place your tanks, troops and weapons in places where you think you need them. The enemy attacks, doesn't go where predicted, and you adjust. The virus is an enemy just like any other.