1/ Promise this is my last comment on this crazy global oil cut deal.

My position: It’s a farce. Even worse, we are setting OURSELVES up in the US to take the fall and give Russia and Saudis a free pass on any blame.

They are playing us.

Here it is:

2/ Right now they are refusing to cut alone but IF the US and others participate they may do it.

As others have pointed out, implementing millions of barrels of cuts across private US producers, Canada and other G20s is insanely difficult. If not impossible.

They know this.

3/ Enter @RyanSitton . The Russians have a term for people like him: “Useful idiots.” Google it. It’s a real thing.

They have found a self promoting person from the West too stupid to recognize the impracticality of this.

Arrogance = usefulness.

4/ So the West comes to the table with our useful idiot. He tries and tries to make it happen.

But like loans to millions of business through SBA, this is functionally impossible.

And even IF we came up with a scheme, there would be cheaters, refusal to participate, etc.

5/ A failure of implementation OR even minor cheating does the trick.

Russia and OPEC can point to that and say “see! We tried but YOU messed it up! It’s on you!”

And there it is: they have their excuse for a free market where they win and we lose. Sorry - we tried!

6/ Compound that rationale with the point that a 10 mmbbld cut doesn’t fix a 25-30 mmbbld problem. Not even close. They know this too! So why even try?

Because the FAILED ATTEMPT is useful.

@RyanSitton = useful idiot.

@realDonaldTrump = useful idiot.

MBS + Putin = not idiots

7/ Just my opinion. But seems plausible. It just doesn’t make sense.

@ARaj_Energy @mr_skilling @JavierBlas