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According to today’s #jobsday data, we lost 701,000 jobs in March. BUT it’s important to note that because of the timing of data collection for the survey, that number is hopelessly outdated. 1/
The “reference period” for the survey is the payroll period that includes March 12. Even though that was only three weeks ago, things have changed so fast since then that the data released today are, well, genuinely old. 2/
Unemployment insurance data, which come out in nearly real time, show that 10 MILLION people applied for unemployment insurance benefits in the last two weeks of March, *after* the reference period for the jobs data released today. 3/ https://www.epi.org/press/a-portrait-of-disaster-initial-ui-claims-jump-from-211000-to-6-6-million-in-three-weeks/
Even though those 10 million jobs were lost in March, because they were mostly lost in the *last half* of March, they don’t show up in today’s “March” data. (Yep, “March” needs quotes when referring to today’s data.) 4/
Further, based on GDP forecasts, we currently project nearly TWENTY million workers will be laid off or furloughed before July. (And that includes the impact of the CARES Act *and* assumes that Congress will pass another relief package.) 5/ https://www.epi.org/blog/nearly-20-million-jobs-lost-by-july-due-to-the-coronavirus/
Despite being woefully out-of-date, today’s data do provide information about the early days of the crisis, including which sectors were the very first affected. Unsurprising, leisure and hospitality was hit the hardest, losing 459,000 jobs. 6/
Temporary help services also lost jobs (-49,500), which is typical in the early stage of a recession, as companies shed temporary workers first. 7/
Hours showed signs of the crash, as employers initially reduce schedules. The number of “involuntary” part-time workers increased by 1.4 million. Average hours in the private sector fell by two tenths of an hour, and by 1.4 hours in leisure and hospitality. 8/
A bright spot? The federal government hired 17,000 workers to conduct the 2020 Census, if only temporarily. FILL OUT YOUR CENSUS FORM. 9/
The unemployment rate rose from 3.5% to 4.4%, but that understates things because many who are out of work wouldn't report looking for work because...pandemic. The labor force declined by 1.6 million, reflecting this dynamic. 10/
It boggles the mind how bad this #jobsreport is, given that it is truly just the tip of the iceberg. 11/
