WARNING: The jobs report numbers you& #39;re about to see reflect the state of the economy an eternity (three weeks) ago.

Payrolls fell -701k, and unemployment rose nearly a full point to 4.4%.

It& #39;s exactly what we knew three weeks ago: The shutdown back then was just beginning. The numbers in today& #39;s report are a bit worse than we saw in the initial claims numbers three weeks ago, suggesting that hiring froze first.

But today& #39;s reality -- three weeks later -- dwarfs any of this.

My calculations (see today& #39;s @UpshotNYT) show that we& #39;ve probably lost an addition 16 MILLION jobs in the weeks since. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/03/upshot/coronavirus-jobless-rate-great-depression.html">https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/0...

It may be jarring to see in the official numbers that the unemployment rate has risen from 3.5% to 4.4%

But the reality is much worse: My calculations suggest that in the ensuing three weeks since these numbers were collected, the unemployment rate has risen to 13%.

Betsey& #39;s right: It& #39;s rare to see the unemployment rate rise by nearly a full percentage point in one month.

But more recent data suggest that right now, the unemployment rate is rising by a full percentage point EVERY TWO DAYS. https://twitter.com/BetseyStevenson/status/1246052728335470592">https://twitter.com/BetseySte...

A truer picture of the state of the labor market right now: Unemployment is probably 13%, and rising rapidly.
(source: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/03/upshot/coronavirus-jobless-rate-great-depression.html)">https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/0...

Here& #39;s a thread, explaining the deets: https://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/1246039097925394432">https://twitter.com/JustinWol...