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WARNING: The jobs report numbers you're about to see reflect the state of the economy an eternity (three weeks) ago.
Payrolls fell -701k, and unemployment rose nearly a full point to 4.4%.
Payrolls fell -701k, and unemployment rose nearly a full point to 4.4%.
It's exactly what we knew three weeks ago: The shutdown back then was just beginning. The numbers in today's report are a bit worse than we saw in the initial claims numbers three weeks ago, suggesting that hiring froze first.
But today's reality -- three weeks later -- dwarfs any of this.
My calculations (see today's @UpshotNYT) show that we've probably lost an addition 16 MILLION jobs in the weeks since. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/03/upshot/coronavirus-jobless-rate-great-depression.html
My calculations (see today's @UpshotNYT) show that we've probably lost an addition 16 MILLION jobs in the weeks since. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/03/upshot/coronavirus-jobless-rate-great-depression.html
It may be jarring to see in the official numbers that the unemployment rate has risen from 3.5% to 4.4%
But the reality is much worse: My calculations suggest that in the ensuing three weeks since these numbers were collected, the unemployment rate has risen to 13%.
But the reality is much worse: My calculations suggest that in the ensuing three weeks since these numbers were collected, the unemployment rate has risen to 13%.
Betsey's right: It's rare to see the unemployment rate rise by nearly a full percentage point in one month.
But more recent data suggest that right now, the unemployment rate is rising by a full percentage point EVERY TWO DAYS. https://twitter.com/BetseyStevenson/status/1246052728335470592
But more recent data suggest that right now, the unemployment rate is rising by a full percentage point EVERY TWO DAYS. https://twitter.com/BetseyStevenson/status/1246052728335470592
A truer picture of the state of the labor market right now: Unemployment is probably 13%, and rising rapidly.
(source: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/03/upshot/coronavirus-jobless-rate-great-depression.html)
(source: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/03/upshot/coronavirus-jobless-rate-great-depression.html)
Here's a thread, explaining the deets: https://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/1246039097925394432
