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My latest: The unemployment figures released today are old news, telling us about the economy 3 weeks ago.
Far better to focus on the unemployment rate *today*.
So I pieced together some numbers to figure out what the unemployment rate is *today*. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/03/upshot/coronavirus-jobless-rate-great-depression.html
Far better to focus on the unemployment rate *today*.
So I pieced together some numbers to figure out what the unemployment rate is *today*. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/03/upshot/coronavirus-jobless-rate-great-depression.html
The answer: The unemployment rate today — on April 3 — is 13%, it’s highest level since the Great Depression.
The unemployment rate is a fast-moving target: It’s currently rising by about half a percentage point PER DAY.
By comparison, over the recent decade-long recovery, it fell by roughly that amount PER YEAR.
That’s why stale data yield very stale insights.
By comparison, over the recent decade-long recovery, it fell by roughly that amount PER YEAR.
That’s why stale data yield very stale insights.
(To be clear, the official number announced this morning is nowhere near 13%, because the official number reflects the state of the economy 3 weeks ago. Neither is 13% a forecast for the official number next month, which will be even higher. 13% is my estimate of the rate TODAY.)
