I think the peak to trough decline is overwhelmingly likely to be worse than anything I’ve seen by a significant margin. Something like a third of the workforce is not going to be able to work during the current period of social lockdown.
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/04/larry-summers-guesses-recovery-can-be-faster-than-anticipated?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=onsite-share&utm_brand=vanity-fair&utm_social-type=earned">https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020... via @VanityFair

And so by that metric this is going to be the worst thing we have dealt with so far. The two huge questions are: How long is this going to last? And how fast can the economy recover?

I think dealing with it more aggressively up front probably means a faster recovery and a shorter total time spent suffering, just as is true with financial bailouts.

I have the optimistic guess-but it’s only an optimistic guess-that the recovery can be faster than many expect b it has the character of the recovery from the depression that hits a Cape Cod economy every winter or recovery in American GDP that takes place every Monday morning.

I think that if we’re able to get the public health under control that normality will return more quickly than it does after financial crises or normal recessions, but I’m not sure of that.