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- UPDATE April 3rd@RaoulGMI #COVID19 #COVID19US #covid19UK #COVID19España #COVID2019
The virus continues to spread with almost 80,000 new confirmed cases yesterday...
Although we crossed the million confirmed cases mark yesterday, it will probably take another five to six days to reach the million active cases...
Globally, we have been adding about 55,000 new active cases every day for the last three days...
Global daily recoveries are increasing...
... and ditto for global deaths...
– note that yesterday’s jump was due to France adjusting their data and adding in people who died in nursing homes...
– note that yesterday’s jump was due to France adjusting their data and adding in people who died in nursing homes...
Active cases daily growth has been slowing down...
In Europe, net active cases have been declining since March 28th (the March 31st spike is due to a lag in reporting) and this has been in part as a result of recoveries and deaths increasing...
Which suggests that a top is forming...
... as expected per our model...
This model is based on active cases (Total Cases minus Deaths minus Recoveries). The big five slowdown will offset the smaller European countries increase...
This model is based on active cases (Total Cases minus Deaths minus Recoveries). The big five slowdown will offset the smaller European countries increase...
We should see the Big Five slowing down soon... the slowdown in the UK will lag due to later intervention...
While the smaller countries will continue to grow...
We will probably cross the unhappy 50,000 deaths mark in Europe in the next five days...
The US added almost 30,000 new confirmed cases yesterday... note that Europe’s daily peak was 35,000...
The US is catching up with Europe at a very fast pace, and is now halfway there...
Total deaths are now above the 6,000 mark...
New York will pass the 100,000 confirmed cases mark today...
The current curve in New York is ahead of our model, which is most likely the result of flexible measures at the beginning...
New York might end up with a curve between these two...
Florida will pass the 10,000 cases mark today...
In line with our model for the moment...
While the total number of deaths in Florida remain low, the figures jumped more than 40% yesterday...
Brazil is beginning to look worrying...
They will likely have more than 10,000 confirmed cases soon...
Although they shouldn’t reach the same absolute numbers because the population (200 million) is much smaller than that of the US, it appears that the curve will be similar... in both places at this point in time, the management was the same in that there was no management.
Currently in Brazil, the total number of deaths reported is low...
... but the numbers are moving very quickly...
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