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Two weeks ago, pubs were still open and everyone was driving off for jollies in jam-packed public spaces. We& #39;re not going to start seeing effects of lockdown and a change in the curve yet; we& #39;re seeing the results of the situation two weeks ago.
I cannot emphasise enough how there is not enough data to conclude "lockdown isn& #39;t working and we should just reopen everything" or "lockdown isn& #39;t working we need to get stricter and have the army shoot joggers" yet because cases reflect TWO WEEKS AGO.
I& #39;d also like to point out that at some point soon if they do roll out the promised testing, we& #39;re going to see a MASSIVE increase in cases, and that doesn& #39;t mean lockdown isn& #39;t working, either.
Also need to point out that the death rate is going to peak even later, regardless of whether lockdown is working, because it will reflect people who were infected *before* lockdown who have then incubated for a while, and then been sick for a while.
So yeah, what the numbers say *today* doesn& #39;t mean what we& #39;re doing now isn& #39;t working; it means what we were doing a fortnight ago when all was business as usual, was not working.
idk I feel like it would be helpful for those scary exponential graphs to somehow make the time lag between action and consequence more clear.
It is only after 3-4 weeks of lockdown that Italy has started to see the new infections curve flatten. What we& #39;re doing now seems to be working, but do not expect immediate results. And also, expect death rates to surge even as infections start to flatten.
