Two weeks ago, pubs were still open and everyone was driving off for jollies in jam-packed public spaces. We're not going to start seeing effects of lockdown and a change in the curve yet; we're seeing the results of the situation two weeks ago.

I cannot emphasise enough how there is not enough data to conclude "lockdown isn't working and we should just reopen everything" or "lockdown isn't working we need to get stricter and have the army shoot joggers" yet because cases reflect TWO WEEKS AGO.

I'd also like to point out that at some point soon if they do roll out the promised testing, we're going to see a MASSIVE increase in cases, and that doesn't mean lockdown isn't working, either.

Also need to point out that the death rate is going to peak even later, regardless of whether lockdown is working, because it will reflect people who were infected *before* lockdown who have then incubated for a while, and then been sick for a while.

So yeah, what the numbers say *today* doesn't mean what we're doing now isn't working; it means what we were doing a fortnight ago when all was business as usual, was not working.

idk I feel like it would be helpful for those scary exponential graphs to somehow make the time lag between action and consequence more clear.

It is only after 3-4 weeks of lockdown that Italy has started to see the new infections curve flatten. What we're doing now seems to be working, but do not expect immediate results. And also, expect death rates to surge even as infections start to flatten.