Day 36 - #COVID19 situation in Iran

picking up from yesterday https://twitter.com/aliostad/status/1245815062343880704?s=20
Usual blurb https://twitter.com/aliostad/status/1234023015584759808?s=20
ICYMI - I presented an analysis yesterday https://twitter.com/aliostad/status/1245665439251861504?s=20
ICYMI - and some new #COVID19 hypothesis and information that can be useful (potentially life-saving) for health professionals.

PLEASE read and share if you see fit. https://twitter.com/aliostad/status/1245790350368702464?s=20
Starting with official numbers for today:

Cases: 53183 (+2715)
Deaths: 3294 (+134)
Recovered: 17935 (+1224)
Active: 31954 (+1357)

This data is very predictable. Over the last week cases between 2.5K and 3.2K and deaths between 110 and 160. https://twitter.com/isna_farsi/status/1246013454357614593?s=20
Meanwhile Iran International has got hold of internal (confidential) memos within the Health Ministry which shows during the time President Rouhani claimed numbers went down, there was in fact a 37% increase. And deaths have risen by 5%. https://twitter.com/IranIntlbrk/status/1245981672488787968?s=20
Relative quietness of the cities have resulted in bizarre scenes being formed in the streets. This footage shows downtown Tehran at round 3AM with allegedly drug dealers and addicts apparently in a parallel universe. https://twitter.com/IranIntl/status/1246004724568076288?s=20
Due to #COVID19 outbreak, hostels and night shelters provided for drug addicts have been shut in Tehran forcing them to go back to the streets.

Iran has one of the highest number of addicts (population%) in the world with starting age reaching 13 according to some data.
Iran's National Register Office (Sabt-e-Ahval) had shared citizens information with the Health Ministry for #COVID19 screening.

This data seems to have been stolen. https://twitter.com/RadioZamaneh/status/1245833108420689920?s=20
Shiraz MP for the first time has revealed he [and others] had requested Parliamentary election to be postponed due to #COVID19, at least in Qom, the epicentre.

Interior Ministry did not agree to the request[s]. https://twitter.com/ManotoNews/status/1246002606247297024?s=20
After one of the doctors in Masih Daneshvari hospital (main centre for #COVIDー19 in Tehran) openly talked about the effectiveness of Favipiravir, Health Ministry has said any comment for or against effectiveness of this drug is a crime! https://twitter.com/IranIntlbrk/status/1245956377295585282?s=20
There are unconfirmed rumours that the drug has made it to the black market via IRGC which control the import of the drug. Each tablet sells for £50.

These rumours could be simply false but with so much corruption and coverup any nonsense has now become believable.
Health Ministry spokesperson continued playing down on the effectiveness of the medicine. 18000 dosage of this drug has been received by Iran.

[Rumour is that these have been kept for only very "special" patients.] https://twitter.com/Entekhab_News/status/1246030140154445824?s=20
#BREAKING Iran International has put the article on Health Ministry internal memo leak:

- Confirmed deaths: 7065 (twice official report)
- Confirmed cases: >100K (twice official)
- Charmahal province with 472 deaths!
- Then Mazandaran: 218 deaths https://twitter.com/IranIntl/status/1246029483712405506?s=20
This is UTTERLY WORRYING discovery. Charmahal province has <1M pop. which means 472 just in a SINGLE day is atrocious.

Also Kohgiluyeh total +1000 deaths. That is for a province of 658K pop. which means 1.4 #COVID19 deaths per 1000 population.
The confusing part is the total of 7065 deaths while in one small province we have 472 deaths per DAY.

The main worry is that we have not got any independent reporting on the situation in these minor provinces. We simply do NOT know what the hell is going on there.
A couple of signs so far pointing towards a new (and probably worse) peak in a few days/a week right after Persian New Year over.

Numbers are on the rise even in Qom (1.2M). https://twitter.com/qomnews/status/1246082593717735425?s=20
Meanwhile some ministries and business are telling their staff to return back to work after New Year holidays.

The Health Minister has warned that no ministry or business can decide "on its own" and such actions would be illegal. https://twitter.com/bbcpersian/status/1246081762788290560?s=20
Dr. Zali head of #COVID19 crisis committee in Tehran reiterated the same concerns and said similar to "Uhud war", we could be facing a terrible defeat.

Uhud was a historic war in which muslims initially claimed victory but were defeated out of complacency https://twitter.com/IranIntl/status/1246071642591133697?s=20
OK, time to leave you for tonight.

It was 40 days ago that Narjes Khanali-Zadeh became the first health professional in Iran to die from #COVID19.

It is now apparent that high dosage of the virus can lead to a more deadly infection.

She had no PPE. https://twitter.com/pkhwshhal/status/1246146731475111937?s=20
Thread continues here: https://twitter.com/aliostad/status/1246362639443296262?s=20
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