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THREAD: The coming months will be dismal and depressing. But if we pull together we also have a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to fix the broken institutions that have contributed, one way or another, to the mess we're in. That means a new Bretton Woods https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/182108c0-74f7-11ea-be30-097bd8237f0d?shareToken=ad05c03a7622757410404cb915fae5fe
NB Bretton Woods was only one of a series of conferences and agreements which formed the international institutions we still have today: the IMF, World Bank, UN, WHO, WTO (or rather its precursor GATT). And those institutions are no longer fit for purpose
#COVID19 has shown how toothless the WHO is. It should have had power to step in earlier & prevent pandemic. It should be the world’s coordinator for allocation of spare medical resources (eg ventilators/doctors). Instead countries (China/Taiwan) are giving aid for political gain
We face an economic crisis that brings to the fore the need for international coordination. How, for instance, do we pay back the trillions we will borrow in the coming months without ensuring all companies pay their fair taxes? Addressing corp tax avoidance suddenly a priority.
Even before the crisis the global economy was facing unprecedented challenges: trade wars, currency wars. China abusing the trade system; the US imposing trade barriers. The WTO desperately needed to be rebuilt/reimagined for the 21st century. Let this be the moment we do it.
The 21st century brought us new challenges for which we don't even have adequate institutions. Mass migration & refugee crises, climate change, data privacy. At the moment they're dealt with by a hodge podge of UN and EU bodies guilty of mission creep. No wonder we're struggling
After 2008 a lot of people called for a new Bretton Woods but it never happened so few of these deep problems were addressed. Lesson: you need something like a war to bring people together to do that. But here we are facing a common foe. Time to think abt reconstructing the world
The whole point of Bretton Woods (and the related summits/conferences) was to ensure WW2 didn't end in the same mess of recrimination and reparations as WW1. It was about settling an awful business in a more civilised fashion, and preventing WW3. Same thing again today…
We could descend into a spiral of blame over #COVID19. We could have a new cold (or hot) war between the US and China. Heaven knows China has serious questions to answer. But better, surely, to do it over a conference table than the barrel of a gun. That was the lesson from 1944
As the V1 bombs fell on London, a group of economists set out to create institutions that would keep the world from descending back into war/depression. My @thetimes column on how, as we fight this virus, we need to do it all over again https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/182108c0-74f7-11ea-be30-097bd8237f0d?shareToken=ad05c03a7622757410404cb915fae5fe
If you're curious about what a new Bretton Woods might involve, do read my book about what it took in 1944. It was the most extraordinary event in economic history, with drama aplenty: near death experiences, spies at the table & all... Kindle edn here: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Summit-Biggest-Battle-Second-fought-ebook/dp/B00FAT9LKQ/ref=tmm_kin_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=&sr=
