One year ago, Haftar launched his offensive on Tripoli.

Haftar has told foreign diplomats that immediately before, he spoke to @AmbJohnBolton, who said: “if you need to do it, do it quick”.

When it happened, the US and EU did nothing, and said what amounted to nothing.
France ensured that the EU would remain inactive.

French diplomats toured EU capitals in April/May, downplaying the impact of Haftar’s war. “Ce n’est pas une guerre”, one told me.

They also vilified Haftar’s opponents as extremists and criminals to justify his offensive.
In mid-April, UAE combat drones began operating. We’ve since accepted this as normal, but at the time, it was a brazen move.

I argued that this would draw out the war and that Europe could not simply watch. It could, and did. https://twitter.com/w_lacher/status/1119850287597068288?s=21
UAE intervention had two entirely predictable consequences: it prolonged the war, saving Haftar from otherwise likely defeat.

It also caused Turkey to intervene in support of Haftar’s opponents, turning the battle into a proxy war.

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-05-18/libya-government-gets-arms-shipment-as-tripoli-offensive-stalls
Why did Europeans not adopt a stronger approach?

First, because many in foreign capitals thought Haftar would eventually prevail thanks to foreign support.

They misjudged how motivated his opponents were, and kept waiting for factions to defect. It never happened.
Second, Western states have remained inactive because they are reluctant to stand in the way of the UAE.

For most, the benefits of smooth ties with the UAE outweigh the negative consequences of continuing war in Libya.

This remains the biggest obstacle to conflict resolution.
Around August, Turkey suspended its support to Haftar’s opponents.

Western states watched as Russian mercenaries & UAE drones tilted the balance in Haftar’s favour. Diplomats increasingly saw Haftar’s further advance as inevitable.

Nobody expected what happened next.
By November, the GNA was under such pressure that it signed an agreement on maritime boundaries with Turkey, in exchange for the resumption of Turkish support.

With that deal, the GNA further alienated Europeans - key to understanding the new EU naval operation Irini.
By now, Turkish support - air defense systems, jamming equipment, drones, warships & 1000s of Syrian mercenaries - has fundamentally changed the balance of power.

Haftar’s chances of capturing Tripoli are now pretty much nonexistent. Nor are other endgames for the war in sight.
To sum up, what policymakers in Western capitals considered realpolitik has led the war to rage on and intervention by a growing range of foreign states to deepen.

Meanwhile, the war’s trajectory has continuously confounded the assumptions on which that “realpolitik” was based.
So, don’t let the stories about Russian, Turkish and UAE meddling in Libya fool you.

This war erupted, and continues, because the US & Europeans failed to make any meaningful effort to stop it.

Regional powers intervene in Libya because they can. Nobody stops them.

END
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