Latest round of #5G contract allocation by China Mobile is another blow to EU & #39;reciprocity& #39; demands, as @m_huotari points out. This is only the latest iteration of setbacks in
the EU-CN telecoms reciprocity saga

[THREAD] https://twitter.com/m_huotari/status/1245740811800776704">https://twitter.com/m_huotari...
During 3G deployment, Nokia & Ericsson had approx. 50% market share in CN. With rise of CN national champions, N&E share tumbled (approx: 25% at start of 4G, 15% at end, <10% today)
Meanwhile...
1/12
... the & #39;De Gucht - Gao Telecom Settlement& #39; (2014): EU would drop TDI cases, CN would open standardisation bodies, both agree & #39;reciprocity in market access and monitoring& #39; to ensure "fair and open market access"
3/12
https://www.borderlex.eu/eutradeinsights/eu-settles-for-better-than-nothing-deal-on-chinese-telecoms/index.htmlIn">https://www.borderlex.eu/eutradein...
In 2015 (start of 5G cycle), EU-CN agree (again) in Joint Declaration to commit to & #39;market access reciprocity& #39;. This commitment was - once again - reiterated in 2019 EU-CN Joint Summit statement.
But...
4/12
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_15_5715">https://ec.europa.eu/commissio...
Clear that numerous commitments in past decade on & #39;reciprocal market access& #39; have not materialised. But it gets worse for EU companies...
6/12
... Not only was EU market share in China almost entirely wiped (some estimate CN 5G market as 40% of global market, ie. EU+US combined), they also lost considerably in their home market. #Huawei EU market share estimates vary b/w 30-40% - some report up to 80% in indvl MS
7/12
... De Gucht faced opposition in Council by a German-led coalition forcing COM to settle w/ CN on the 2014 agreement.
This FT piece from 2013 really nails the political economy of EU trade and EU-CN relations at the time - and is as relevant today.
10/12 https://www.ft.com/content/aa79490a-f8f6-11e2-86e1-00144feabdc0">https://www.ft.com/content/a...
The *economic security* case (1) for action against Huawei & (2) support of N&E in CN is not new. *National security* dimension only since 5G. But US misguided 5G diplomacy, economic primacy in EU policy and non-confrontational CN strategy derailed response
11/12
Was EU naive to think China would allow *fair competition* in strategic sectors? The history of int. pol. economy would likely judge it so. Newfound importance of & #39;critical infrastructure& #39; in Europe suggests EU & #39;reciprocity& #39; may need to reevaluate its baseline position
12/end
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