This is staggering. We can either have month+ lockdowns every few months until late 2021 at least, or let presumably hundreds of thousands of people die (and even that will take until Christmas). https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1245396449518669824

If we can somehow double UK ICU capacity, we could move to scenario 4 there, meaning we have more non-lockdown than lockdown. Until we reach that point, we’re looking at scenario 2 or 3, where we’re locked down more often than not. Scenario 1 is let hundreds of thousands die.

Is there a good modelling piece on how long an initial lockdown we would need before being able to implement something like this? Because I’d rather sit tight for an extra month up-front than be on and off for years. https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1245626891047821316

Transitioning to a South Korea style contact-trace/isolate model isn’t without risk. From the paper in the last tweet, this figure shows how hard it is to get it to work. Green = good, epidemic is controllable. You need high % success finding and quarantining contacts, and fast

But, given the scenarios this thread opened with…it’s worth seriously considering having a go? Even if it costs a lot and doesn’t work, we can always revert to on–off quarantine for the next couple of years…