Really good explainer on the complexity of corona:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-its-so-freaking-hard-to-make-a-good-covid-19-model/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-its-so-freaking-hard-to-make-a-good-covid-19-model/
and for the agent-based nerds: http://smaldino.com/wp/covid-19-modeling-the-flattening-of-the-curve/