We are all just experiencing first-hand how societal disruption feels like. Not comparable, but devastating for those affected can disasters disrupt societies.
In a new study we have assessed the climate-related disasters and armed conflict link https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378019307307 1/n

We don’t find evidence that climate related disasters such as floods or storms cause conflicts. But that they can act as a ‘threat multiplier’ for violent conflicts in vulnerable large countries characterized by ethnic exclusion and low development.
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For such countries, >30% of all conflict onsets since the 1980s have been preceded by a disaster within 7 days.
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In our novel approach we provide multi-method evidence from global statistical analysis to case studies allowing to get to potential mechanisms. On short timescales, the disruptions caused by disasters seem to provide an opportunity for upheaval and armed conflict outbreak. 5/n

Our results provide indications of how and when disasters contribute to increased conflict risk that can inform peace building policies and disaster risk management solutions alike. Great work by colleagues from @unimelb @IFSHHamburg @PIK_Climate @CA_Latest