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Someone had to start it so it might as well be me. Lamar Jackson is a really bad pick in fantasy, given his price.
Not overpaying for QB is not a new offseason discussion by any stretch but we might as well put some context to this.
Not overpaying for QB is not a new offseason discussion by any stretch but we might as well put some context to this.
Lamar posted a 9% TD rate last season. That's simply unsustainable.
Even if we thing he is the best QB in the league, the highest career TD rate for any QB with at least 32 starts is 6% (Russ).
That TD rate means Lamar would have outscored Dak by 47.8 FPs instead of 74.9
Even if we thing he is the best QB in the league, the highest career TD rate for any QB with at least 32 starts is 6% (Russ).
That TD rate means Lamar would have outscored Dak by 47.8 FPs instead of 74.9
Already, that gap makes me question if it's worth it to pay the usual overall QB1 price, let alone Lamar's current second-round market value.
None of this accounts for his recording-setting rushing. Maybe he keeps the volume and yards but TDs are hard to replicate here, too.
None of this accounts for his recording-setting rushing. Maybe he keeps the volume and yards but TDs are hard to replicate here, too.
We can argue all day about likelihood of injury, designed runs vs sacks, sliding, getting out of bound, etc.
The fact is, Lamar is going to take more hits than the average QB and that means more risk.
The fact is, Lamar is going to take more hits than the average QB and that means more risk.
Even if Lamar is the overall QB1 in 2020, the gap is likely to shrink, maybe to a single-digit gap from the QB2 and probably really close to all top-6 fantasy QBs.
We know we can get QB1 production in 1-QB leagues without even drafting the position.
We know we can get QB1 production in 1-QB leagues without even drafting the position.
You're better off looking for a QB that can blow away his draft price and spending your early-round pick on a skill position that is hard to replace.
I will have zero shares.
End rant
I will have zero shares.
End rant
