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What are the odds that the people who were on the same flight as the index got infected??
A scientific Thread
A scientific Thread
Now that the proper protocol have been followed(abeit with some leakage) in announcing to the public the 3 cases, It& #39;s now "safe" for to discuss some related things to the index case.these are my own opinion and not affiliated with any institutions or committees I& #39;m part of
The index case arrived on a flight from a country with local transmission. The index did not have any symptoms. As per protocol, those showing symptoms are quarantined and those without any symptoms are self isolated following screening
So just like any Malawian coming from an affected country without symptoms, the index self isolated at home. She developed symptoms >day 6 of self isolation. This fact is very important to understand
The science of SARS-CoV2 tells us that a person can become infectious up to a maximum of 2 days (1-2 days range) before they start showing symptoms/know they are infected
It& #39;s therefore EXTREMELY unlikely that this person was infections to anyone on the flight or on entry to Malawi which was 7 days before she started symptoms. Everyone on self isolation are contacted everyday to check how they are doing.
Now we can do a blame game of analysing this index case and what should/shouldn& #39;t have happened on her home but the fact is COVID19 is in Malawi. It was just a matter of time. If not this case would have been another case. It& #39;s a Global pandemic
Why is everyone coming in Malawi tested?? There& #39;s two tests, a rapid antibody test (IgG/IgM) and a definite PCR test which has a results turn around time of 2-3 days.
The rapid tests measure virus specific antibodies and the body to mount an immune response against (antibodies) otherwise they do not detect the virus. body starts producing these antibodies around day 4-5 of infection which means that if done early it COULD give a false negative
The PCR tests is more definitive because it compares virus DNA and DNA of the suspected case. The challenge is it& #39;s not widely available around the globe (yes even in USA and UK). companies that manufacture reagents are shut down e.g in China due to lock down
So it& #39;s no one& #39;s fault that everyone is not tested on entry (in a perfect world that would have been best). Remember there& #39;s a lot of people that have completed 14 days self isolation and had no symptoms in Malawi and Globally
Looking forward, protect the most vulnerable e.g. elderly and those with chronic diseases instead of a total lock down. In 12 to 16 weeks it would have spread to about 50% of the population(mathematical modeling data) despite the best possible containment measures
Total lock down will do more harm than good in our setting. How are people going to keep food without refrigeration? How will people buy food? With which money? What about access health services?
I& #39;m done. Have a good morning and stay safe 
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Ooh and seen a lot of typos https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="😬" title="Grimacing face" aria-label="Emoji: Grimacing face"> I write as I think and don& #39;t proof read https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="😂" title="Face with tears of joy" aria-label="Emoji: Face with tears of joy">, my bad
