I have Christian Kirk ranked well ahead of consensus on my dynasty rankings on Patreon.

Lets take a look at why I am not scared off by the DeAndre Hopkins acquisition.

Let's dive in.

I have covered his rookie profile and his impressive rookie year in detail in prior threads so at this point lets focus on his projection starting in 2020.

Kirk is entering his 3rd season and this is the point where we really need our dynasty WR's to start producing.

Kirk's target share in his first two seasons were 20.4% (2018) and 24.5% (2019)

In 2019 he wrestled away #1 target rights from Larry Fitzgerald as Fitz only had a 20.6% target share.

This tells me that we should expect Kirk to remain ahead of Fitz on the target totem pole.

Odell had averaged a target share of 27.44% heading into 2019.

His first season in Cleveland he managed a target share of 25.6% which is pretty close to his career average.

We also know that when WR's change teams they typically see a reduction in production the first year.

So I think Odell's modest decrease is a reasonable expectation for Hopkins.

Since his rookie year Hopkins has averaged a very healthy 30.9% target share.

However when Hopkins plays with Will Fuller his targets per game drop by 1.82.

That is a pretty substantial adjustment in the neighborhood of 3-5% I'd guess

So given the new team and the reduced target share by having a quality teammate (fuller in Houston and Kirk in Arizona) I think it would be fair to pencil Hopkins in for a 25-27% target share for 2020

As previously mentioned Kirk had a 24% last season. I believe it is fair to assume that Hopkins bumps Kirk from the alpha chair (shocking?)

But its reasnable for quality #2 options to be in the 20% range and given Kirk has never had less than 20% I think that's a fair projection

Now that we know we have a projection on how the pie is getting divided we need to determine how big the pie is.

Based on @pahowdy 's coaching tendencies sheet he has the cardinals projected for 559 pass attempts.

The easy math on that for Kirk is 559*20% = 111.8 targets

Here is where 112 targets would have ranked the past few seasons:

2019 - WR24
2018 - WR18
2017 - WR18

But what if Kyler Murray is "generational" (for fantasy) as I labeled him as a prospect?

What if the addition of Hopkins brings the offense to another level?

What if the Cardinals get to play the up-tempo game that leads to a top volume offense as they have stated

The top 5 offenses in pass attempts over the past 5 years have averaged 635.52 pass attempts.

What if the Cardinals are one of those top 5 teams in pass volume this year?

That would bring Christian Kirk to 635.52 * 20% = 127.10 targets.

His ranks the past few seasons would have been:

2019 - WR14
2018 - WR13
2017 - WR12

So basically it comes down to even with a normal projection for the Cardinals offense Kirk should see top 24 type targets.

If the Cardinals are an excellent offense in 2020 Kirk should be seeing top 12 type targets.

Kirk is currently going as WR28 off the board in dynasty startups per @DLFootball adp BEFORE Hopkins was added.

I am anxiously awaiting to see how the Hopkins addition causes Kirk to slide down the board.

In my opinion it is perfectly reasonable to project Kirk for WR2 fantasy seasons starting as soon as this season.

He is 23.4 years old.

You could get a handful of quality starter seasons out of him and his price is not showing that.

Here is a quick look at what I am thinking for how the pie is divided.

Fingers crossed for Isabella 10%?!