Can I talk to the public as a modeler for a second?

I've been training for something like this for 10 years. I've been doing outreach, posting, publishing and now I'm asking you:

Don't listen to modelers right now. Don't try to understand the full range of good and bad science.

Normally, there's a bell curve of good and bad science - some really brilliant work, some really confused work - but it all sort of approximates the truth like a shotgun blast.

Right now, every single person with my training is doing this work. I can't even keep up with it.

What that means is that every now and then, there's going to be a paper that says something like "Africa won't be hit by COVID because it's too hot" or "10 million Americans were infected weeks ago and the disease isn't severe."

I promise it is, really, as bad as it seems.

I promise you that not just as an expert on pandemic preparedness,

or as an expert on epidemiological models,

or as a scientist working with policymakers,

but as someone who has watched friends and loved ones coordinate the response to this and be utterly crushed in the wave.

We passed a million confirmed cases today. This is still early. There might never be anything as dangerous as this, ever again.

Stay inside. Follow the rules. Wash your hands. Look out for your loved ones & your community, and do your best to keep COVID from spreading. Keep on.