NY State has more than 2,000 deaths. That equates to about 100 deaths per million. If they continue to follow the Lombardy curve, the cumulative death rate near the peak will be about 700-800 deaths per million (so 7-8x as many as they have now). #COVID19

So, over the next 2 weeks, we could see another 12,000-14,000 deaths for NY State alone (about half of those from NYC). I think it will be lower. I hope it will be. Even so, I don’t know how a healthcare system even the size of NY’s can cope.