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Some of the comments by Japanese pundits on recent talk shows are stunning in how they veer from what’s being expressed by English-speaking experts easily found online. They seem to think economic damage from enforcing social distancing would lead to more deaths and problems.
I also find disturbing their quick and rather insular dismissal of what other Western countries are doing as merely politically motivated with little medical foundation and their pushing what seems to be a unique Japanese method as the best compromise.
Sentiments also high on sending kids back to school. Fears expressed about their ending up uneducated and losers, as well as about parents going nuts. Just a personal opinion but child-rearing is always hard work requiring constant attention and creativity. Get with it at home.
Shigeru Omi is among the top government advisers on the outbreak. Watch what he says, how he says it, how intentionally and unintentionally the message may be sent in Japan and why what's going on here is happening.
He said now live on NHK TV that the "overshoot" stage is when cases double in two or three days. In Japan, the case sare doubling every four or five days. "It is getting close but not yet in that stage," he said.
Even if the government declares an emergency it's not a Western-style "lockdown." No penalties. Work/life continue as before but under some restrictions of keeping workers separated. Those who can work from home: Summary of comments from Nomi and other government officials.
Koike says all that is already taking place. Declaring an emergency gives it legal backing; that's all so maybe people will take it more seriously, she says.
To summarize, if Japan enters "overshoot," or doubling of number of cases in two or three days, then this legal measure will be taken (without penalties, just more of the same). The reason for the wait is that Japanese politicians take the measure seriously.
Nomi gets extra points and laughs for admitting people aren't getting the message, and for admitting a lot of people don't watch NHK. The MC said: Yes, that's true. (My personal score sheet.)
An economic package will be announced early in the coming week so people can each do their little part to fight the virus without emergency having to be declared, officials say. (The package includes that 300,000 yen help for families in need already announced.)
Tokyo is running out of beds for the patients so more are being readied for Monday, and rooms outside hospitals for quarantine are also being readied, Koike says. Buying up hotels by local governments is needed, Nomi says.
Nomi notes the shortage is not just about beds but about protective gear. He also says contagion is spreading in medical facilities as suspected patients get tested. So how they are handled needs to be spelled out to prevent the spread, he says.
Avigan will be available for patients in Japan, if they wish it. (You have to scroll in this for the Tokyo dateline but I filed on Avigan last week):
https://www.punxsutawneyspirit.com/content/latest-covid-19-updates-april-3
https://www.punxsutawneyspirit.com/content/latest-covid-19-updates-april-3
"If there is a time, the time is now," says Tokyo Gov. Yuriko Koike for making the emergency declaration.
Nomi says Japan has boasted the lowest death rate in the world in a past fight against the flu pandemic. "If we all work at this, it is possible Japan may be able to do it this time again," he said.
None of them said it but the key difference, once the "emergency" declaration kicks in, might be the testing. There has been no effort to do massive testing to find infected people whose symptoms have yet to show or who may be asymptomatic. Reports say testing kits are available.
I would have asked that question.
