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A new piece from me that applies ideas from complexity theory to the cascading health, economic & social effects of #COVID19.
I think we need to think about economic globalisation as involving great benefits but also creating systemic risks that we need to better address https://twitter.com/barronsonline/status/1245838535401373697
I think we need to think about economic globalisation as involving great benefits but also creating systemic risks that we need to better address https://twitter.com/barronsonline/status/1245838535401373697
This piece works really nicely with the work by @ANewman_forward and @choermoraes about the vulnerabilities that the coronavirus has shown about our deeply interdependent supply chains and "just-in-time" approaches to manufacturing. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2020-03-16/will-coronavirus-end-globalization-we-know-it
It also links to @geoffreygertz's great work on the unexpected vulnerabilities of supply chains and the possibility for even small disruptions to have large and unexpected effects, but also pointing the way to future risk mapping and creative adaptation. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2020/03/05/the-coronavirus-will-reveal-hidden-vulnerabilities-in-complex-global-supply-chains/
It builds on the wonderful work of @ian_goldin and Mike Mariathasan on "The Butterfly Defect" by @PrincetonUPress. I've been developing this thinking more generally for the next step in my work on #geoeconomics. @choermoraes https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691154701/the-butterfly-defect
These tensions can be seen in the discussions of others like @gideonrachman on the risks of pandemics in an age of hyperconnectivity. This is true of the coronavirus but also of other contagious risks that spread through connectivity like in the GFC. https://www.ft.com/content/21c56170-1331-45c8-a526-7158c0e8ac81
The latter is well captured by the work of scholars like @adam_tooze but also by Haldane on systemic risks from the GFC.
I'm hoping we get a new book on the contagion of different types of risks & the political fallout from 2008/2020 in comparison. https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/301357/crashed-by-adam-tooze/
I'm hoping we get a new book on the contagion of different types of risks & the political fallout from 2008/2020 in comparison. https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/301357/crashed-by-adam-tooze/
The notion of the sort of cascading consequences that the coronavirus can have - from the health to the economic to the social and political - is well captured by @BrankoMilan on whether the coronavirus will lead to social collapse. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2020-03-19/real-pandemic-danger-social-collapse
Finally, @nicolas_lamp & I are working on how to develop this analysis in our book about narratives about #WinnersLosers from economic globalisation that is contracted to be published by @Harvard_Press w/ @IanMalcolm10.
It shows #KaleidoscopicComplexity https://www.barrons.com/articles/is-the-virus-killing-globalization-theres-no-one-answer-51584209741
It shows #KaleidoscopicComplexity https://www.barrons.com/articles/is-the-virus-killing-globalization-theres-no-one-answer-51584209741
Might be of interest to @gregorycshaffer @harlangcohen @GolleyJane @limdarrenj @Rory_Medcalf @BrendanKTaylor @SargeantBrendan @andybkennedy @thomaswright08 @KatharinaPistor @snlester @inumanak @timhollo @LizEconomy @SlaughterAM @SammSacks @jbentonheath @loyaladvisor @AratoJulian
