Read on Twitter
This will be a #CoV19 Thread. Much of the info you have seen, some of it is my own math projections. The one thing I wanted to share to Twitter is ER Advice from a Dr in NOLA that I have only seen on FB so far. It is dismal material so I will try to keep it light hearted
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I cleaned up this message,broke it into paragraphs and highlighted a few things. I am not a doctor so I don't understand all the jargon. If any of my doctor friends ID things I should take down I will, but I think this info needs to be circulated.
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What I take (by reading between the lines)from that one above is that when hospitals hit capacity the 14% that require hospitalization lose the chance to fight it and become critical as well.
Which is why I say when we hit capacity fatality hops from 3-5% to 20%
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Which is why I say when we hit capacity fatality hops from 3-5% to 20%
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Too much ER Doctor jargon in here for me to withdraw anything useful to the lay people, but I feel Doctor's that have not faced a lot of cases of #CoV19 yet should get this info
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Again this is for the doctors on the ground. Plz get this info to them if you can.
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Intubation is not an assurance of survival. People only have a14-30% chance of survival once it gets to that point.
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This is more info that is more useful to doctors on the ground, not us the concerned citizens on Twitter. I don't take credit for this, it came from friend of friend of friend through FB sharing. I'm not a doctor.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=55&v=XXt1-qEjKlE&feature=emb_logo
OK gonna take a beat and circle back. Rock out to @samanthajayne from #CAKEFX. We'll talk Exponential numbers next.
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OK gonna take a beat and circle back. Rock out to @samanthajayne from #CAKEFX. We'll talk Exponential numbers next.
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OK I broke to eat dinner too. Still have my appetite, which is good cause losing it is a #CoV19 symptom.
So. Exponential numbers.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponentiation
Basically the doubling every 3-4 days we see is exponential movement.
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So. Exponential numbers.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponentiation
Basically the doubling every 3-4 days we see is exponential movement.
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If you still don't get the idea, here's a visualization. The longer the pattern holds the quicker the spread is, the more massive the spread is. That is how #CoV19 will continue to spread unless we flatten the curve.
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My own projections were a bit off last week because I was expecting doubling every 2-3 days, but it is currently doubling every 3-4. I will do numbers again Saturday after we meet my Friday night projection 7k dead (or not)
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But after accounting for the 3-4 days of doubling I still calculated :
225K Dead April 23rd
900K Dead May 1st
Some regions will flatten the curve by then, but Nationally we're not there yet.
11/ https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/27/upshot/coronavirus-new-york-comparison.html?fbclid=IwAR19YQyR5T7gLAqROehyVCb64kCWG5H0bfxWq8mlB36Q6_dbrh7c9gjzf2E
225K Dead April 23rd
900K Dead May 1st
Some regions will flatten the curve by then, but Nationally we're not there yet.
11/ https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/27/upshot/coronavirus-new-york-comparison.html?fbclid=IwAR19YQyR5T7gLAqROehyVCb64kCWG5H0bfxWq8mlB36Q6_dbrh7c9gjzf2E
It's impossible to flatten the curve for all of USA until we're ALL enacting proper protocols. Some states have been flat out screwed by their governor's responses. For example, me in Florida.
12/ https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article241487396.html?fbclid=IwAR2xF-HqUx5Y2mgYRkYrem72D1M4RkgBhfJMBqD6GoXNejebLS6QkZ81lf8
12/ https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article241487396.html?fbclid=IwAR2xF-HqUx5Y2mgYRkYrem72D1M4RkgBhfJMBqD6GoXNejebLS6QkZ81lf8
I guess it's never too late to welcome Tennessee into the year 2020. We need a unified response Nationally or Exponential Numbers are gonna keep killing us.
13/ https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2020/04/02/gov-bill-lee-issues-stay-home-mandate-tennessee-continues-fight-spread-coronavirus/5112202002/
13/ https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2020/04/02/gov-bill-lee-issues-stay-home-mandate-tennessee-continues-fight-spread-coronavirus/5112202002/
Sheer population density is taking its toll on NYC which is now the global epicenter. This was two weeks ago.
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https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/25/nyregion/nyc-coronavirus-hospitals.html?fbclid=IwAR0QsLLcrAY2Nz6nFz6qzvY6zHKhKUBtkthMmBiosXBXSkSCW0DdGk18_Nc
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https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/25/nyregion/nyc-coronavirus-hospitals.html?fbclid=IwAR0QsLLcrAY2Nz6nFz6qzvY6zHKhKUBtkthMmBiosXBXSkSCW0DdGk18_Nc
As long as NYC is dependent on their subway system to get their workers to the hospitals (and shipping centers) we will not be able to flatten the curve.
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I had been using WaPo's page to follow stats but I don't think they're staying on top of it properly, so this is now my primary source for following deaths/infections.
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https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
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https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Another quick musical interlude as I finish eating.
This is @lkx47 Leikeli47, my current favorite rapper.
"miss miss miss me with the bullshit"
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This is @lkx47 Leikeli47, my current favorite rapper.
"miss miss miss me with the bullshit"
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Now some of us think we got #CoV19 as early as January. Many asymptomatic ppl will never suspect they have it. Some people with mild cases might not even suspect they have it. Like our resident super hero Greta
18/ https://www.courthousenews.com/greta-thunberg-reports-recovery-from-what-was-likely-covid-19/
18/ https://www.courthousenews.com/greta-thunberg-reports-recovery-from-what-was-likely-covid-19/
This thread is one of the most concise on safety that I have seen on Twitter. Unlike me, she IS a doctor.
19/ https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1243207848474988549.html
19/ https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1243207848474988549.html
This is why drinking tea every two hours can actually help beat #CoV19. Melt it and flush it to the stomach where it is not a lethal flooding of your lungs.
I've been drinking tea A LOT.
20/ https://www.accuweather.com/en/health-wellness/higher-temperatures-affect-survival-of-new-coronavirus-pathologist-says/700800
I've been drinking tea A LOT.
20/ https://www.accuweather.com/en/health-wellness/higher-temperatures-affect-survival-of-new-coronavirus-pathologist-says/700800
Youth does not make you invulnerable, and doctors & nurses exposed to a lot of it become more susceptible.
21/ https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/13/world/asia/coronavirus-death-life.html?fbclid=IwAR3L29gnEwZTbGRkBk2hBTI1y6OhiyPXWGrrG6ij0swk4iE_ul61sOo3kFg
21/ https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/13/world/asia/coronavirus-death-life.html?fbclid=IwAR3L29gnEwZTbGRkBk2hBTI1y6OhiyPXWGrrG6ij0swk4iE_ul61sOo3kFg
I personally had a 4-5 day fever in January that I believe was one of the strains of #CoV19. But as I was never tested and since there are TWO phenotypes, I am waiting to beat both before I think of myself as seasonally safe.
22/ https://www.newscientist.com/article/2236544-coronavirus-are-there-two-strains-and-is-one-more-deadly/
22/ https://www.newscientist.com/article/2236544-coronavirus-are-there-two-strains-and-is-one-more-deadly/
I won't be able to know if I beat one or both strains though, until we develop the antibody test.
23/ http://theconversation.com/antibody-tests-to-get-a-grip-on-coronavirus-we-need-to-know-whos-already-had-it-134547
23/ http://theconversation.com/antibody-tests-to-get-a-grip-on-coronavirus-we-need-to-know-whos-already-had-it-134547
We need to protect our Doctors, Nurses, Truckers and Food Workers in this Crisis. This bullshit needs to stop.
24/ https://www.rawstory.com/2020/03/landlords-booting-out-nurses-over-coronavirus-fears-and-grocery-workers-could-be-next/?fbclid=IwAR3wiTyXjyhERnZseGEOQbovVvZMB_Ntb72xvHCGDKzG8Zlol49dg46IWvU
24/ https://www.rawstory.com/2020/03/landlords-booting-out-nurses-over-coronavirus-fears-and-grocery-workers-could-be-next/?fbclid=IwAR3wiTyXjyhERnZseGEOQbovVvZMB_Ntb72xvHCGDKzG8Zlol49dg46IWvU
This one is a long musical Interlude so I can have some ice cream then brush my teeth.
"Lucy took a walk, now Lucy's dead."
bbiaf
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"Lucy took a walk, now Lucy's dead."
bbiaf
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So it's time to talk about Intentional Spread. We know that there have been crazy cults that spread it on purpose, #Patient31 for example. This guy was intentionally coughing on ppl before he died on the train.
26/ https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/covid-19-thailand-man-dies-train-pakistan-12599636
26/ https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/covid-19-thailand-man-dies-train-pakistan-12599636
Also in Thailand they are looking into this event that occurred despite lockdown. Whether intentional or not it was a Super Spreader incident.
27/ https://www.khaosodenglish.com/news/crimecourtscalamity/2020/03/26/army-orders-probe-in-super-spreader-boxing-match/
27/ https://www.khaosodenglish.com/news/crimecourtscalamity/2020/03/26/army-orders-probe-in-super-spreader-boxing-match/
This also seems accidental, but holy shit India is about to have some scary numbers.
28/ https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/1888290/case-of-super-spreader-guru-alarms-india
28/ https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/1888290/case-of-super-spreader-guru-alarms-india
Which brings us to last night when @VickerySec said what many of us have been thinking in 4 succinct Tweets.
29/ https://threader.app/thread/1245538538138959874
29/ https://threader.app/thread/1245538538138959874
Trumpov has known for a very long time. And He's also been working against out pandemic response capabilities for a long time.
30/ https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/19/us/politics/trump-coronavirus-outbreak.html
30/ https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/19/us/politics/trump-coronavirus-outbreak.html
Andddd he kept on downplaying it.
31/ https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/15/opinion/trump-coronavirus.html
31/ https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/15/opinion/trump-coronavirus.html
But he did have a weird visit to Walter Reed that coincided with the first #CoV19 known on Earth in China November 17th. (File that for later)
32/ https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/17/politics/trump-physical-walter-reed-protocol-routine-presidential-visit/index.html
32/ https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/17/politics/trump-physical-walter-reed-protocol-routine-presidential-visit/index.html
He went on to give away literal TONS of our PPE & medical equipment.
33/ https://www.state.gov/the-united-states-announces-assistance-to-combat-the-novel-coronavirus/?fbclid=IwAR3UcRhsDhsxuG8RoB4mMKtntw4t-g0f-RAWCDAkeBLk_05fA8dpYsa0Dfk
33/ https://www.state.gov/the-united-states-announces-assistance-to-combat-the-novel-coronavirus/?fbclid=IwAR3UcRhsDhsxuG8RoB4mMKtntw4t-g0f-RAWCDAkeBLk_05fA8dpYsa0Dfk
He gave away our supplies SEVERAL times.
34/ https://www.usaid.gov/asia-regional/press-releases/mar-9-2020-us-provides-personal-protective-equipment-royal-thai-covid-19?fbclid=IwAR1aDUrgkExcyUVBYg-hU2bqNF6yidS7HjUsjZkk1k96FvKufGPFmZdkNhI
34/ https://www.usaid.gov/asia-regional/press-releases/mar-9-2020-us-provides-personal-protective-equipment-royal-thai-covid-19?fbclid=IwAR1aDUrgkExcyUVBYg-hU2bqNF6yidS7HjUsjZkk1k96FvKufGPFmZdkNhI
He's also (predictably) turned the crisis into a way to campaign and be a general blackmailing mobster.
35/ https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/03/how-republicans-and-democrats-think-about-coronavirus/608395/?fbclid=IwAR1d77DU7uHHRYvMupx4Q6JndFXzxLGwjGswsRyy2gtkxbZofToXHO8Hguw
35/ https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/03/how-republicans-and-democrats-think-about-coronavirus/608395/?fbclid=IwAR1d77DU7uHHRYvMupx4Q6JndFXzxLGwjGswsRyy2gtkxbZofToXHO8Hguw
Some of the equipment we do have has lapsed in its usefulness. This again could have been prevented.
36/ https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/us/politics/coronavirus-ventilators.html
36/ https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/us/politics/coronavirus-ventilators.html
I personally still think this could have been developed in a Russian lab and this guy wants to accept their help? I reallllly think RU will only send us tainted and useless equipment. (or sell us our own stuff back)
37/ https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/russian-plane-coronavirus-medical-gear-lands-u-s-after-trump-n1174436
37/ https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/russian-plane-coronavirus-medical-gear-lands-u-s-after-trump-n1174436
He goes on TV everyday to spread #deza and rile up his not-so-smart base. His message is making things worse daily.
38/ https://www.salon.com/2020/04/02/trump-empowered-conspiracy-theorists-now-theyre-threatening-public-health-and-safety/
38/ https://www.salon.com/2020/04/02/trump-empowered-conspiracy-theorists-now-theyre-threatening-public-health-and-safety/
To the point that it seems his Qanon brainiacs are going to be attacking hospitals and aid shipments. Cause they already are.
39/ https://abcnews.go.com/US/engineer-allegedly-crash-train-usns-mercy-los-angeles/story?id=69926172
39/ https://abcnews.go.com/US/engineer-allegedly-crash-train-usns-mercy-los-angeles/story?id=69926172
Ok gonna pause for another Musical Interlude then close out with hopeful and helpful stuff.
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There's no denying it's getting grim. We don't have to go all the way to Iran to see bodies piling up.
41/ https://www.syracuse.com/coronavirus/2020/04/report-rikers-island-inmates-offered-6-per-hour-to-dig-mass-graves-in-nyc.html
41/ https://www.syracuse.com/coronavirus/2020/04/report-rikers-island-inmates-offered-6-per-hour-to-dig-mass-graves-in-nyc.html
The numbers I base my math off of might be low, because of several factors.
42/ https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/nidhiprakash/coronavirus-update-dead-covid19-doctors-hospitals?fbclid=IwAR0AD7poLSk6Sd8jTBKNWixrGfQuGWTckOe0UdhvMA68tK-3oRvsAOWm2Rw
42/ https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/nidhiprakash/coronavirus-update-dead-covid19-doctors-hospitals?fbclid=IwAR0AD7poLSk6Sd8jTBKNWixrGfQuGWTckOe0UdhvMA68tK-3oRvsAOWm2Rw
Not least in those factors is that we don't know how many people are dead at home. Especially in huge cities like NYC, Detroit, NOLA.
43/ https://nypost.com/2020/03/30/bronx-coronavirus-victims-body-left-in-home-for-24-hours-before-collected/?utm_source=twitter_sitebuttons&utm_medium=site+buttons&utm_campaign=site+buttons&fbclid=IwAR0Jp1oyMEdnaHKeOqSAV6zFrfwALm7f9Ye1ffySZZ7MgS4qldyzGdlxkTo
43/ https://nypost.com/2020/03/30/bronx-coronavirus-victims-body-left-in-home-for-24-hours-before-collected/?utm_source=twitter_sitebuttons&utm_medium=site+buttons&utm_campaign=site+buttons&fbclid=IwAR0Jp1oyMEdnaHKeOqSAV6zFrfwALm7f9Ye1ffySZZ7MgS4qldyzGdlxkTo
But there IS Hope. The immediacy of the Crisis is leading to groundbreaking new approaches to networking the cure collectively. But I told you to file the Walter Reed visit for later, yeah?
44/ https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/who-launches-global-megatrial-four-most-promising-coronavirus-treatments?fbclid=IwAR2XdicTe5g6aSfQCiXgkhxdc9YXN-9bhzZ_5Qn3xT_9IVg-j9Mk89OF9Ws
44/ https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/who-launches-global-megatrial-four-most-promising-coronavirus-treatments?fbclid=IwAR2XdicTe5g6aSfQCiXgkhxdc9YXN-9bhzZ_5Qn3xT_9IVg-j9Mk89OF9Ws
It has been theorized that Trumpov & perhaps some other ppl in his circle have been taking HIV meds that 'may' work to preventive/suppress bad case of #CoV19. His paint job would cover it but it causes blotches on the skin from what I understand.
#GOPutin use is theoretical.
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#GOPutin use is theoretical.
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Also, no matter how bad it gets, brilliant minds are working hard to make it easier for us to maximize our response to the outbreak.
46/ https://scitechdaily.com/mit-posts-free-plans-online-for-an-emergency-ventilator-that-can-be-built-for-100/?fbclid=IwAR1jYkD-6f9TWRFt8gMp1a3JRYHxIL4Lz7G5RhAaDSeW_B36r_paGCxnnzk
46/ https://scitechdaily.com/mit-posts-free-plans-online-for-an-emergency-ventilator-that-can-be-built-for-100/?fbclid=IwAR1jYkD-6f9TWRFt8gMp1a3JRYHxIL4Lz7G5RhAaDSeW_B36r_paGCxnnzk
Being stuck at home doesn't mean we're helpless. There are things we can be doing.
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I am working on some of these soon.
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Some people are going above and beyond the call of duty.
49/ https://twitter.com/soychicka/status/1245415755606372353
49/ https://twitter.com/soychicka/status/1245415755606372353
But even video gaming can be done in pursuit of battling #CoV19. You can feel useful. I was going nuts so I organized and wrote this thread.
50/ https://www.smh.com.au/national/this-game-helps-scientists-design-covid-drugs-they-want-you-to-play-20200330-p54fby.html
50/ https://www.smh.com.au/national/this-game-helps-scientists-design-covid-drugs-they-want-you-to-play-20200330-p54fby.html
Find productive things to do, eat healthy, use sani every 15 minutes and do your Social Distancing. It feels like the end of the world, but MOST of us will get through this.
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Thx for reading. I hope some of it helps somebody somewhere. I'll leave you with one last song from that time @SPRORGNSM was on #LegionFX.
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