Thread by @aurora_phlox, This will be a #CoV19 Thread. Much of the info you have [...]

This will be a #CoV19 Thread. Much of the info you have seen, some of it is my own math projections. The one thing I wanted to share to Twitter is ER Advice from a Dr in NOLA that I have only seen on FB so far. It is dismal material so I will try to keep it light hearted

1/

I cleaned up this message,broke it into paragraphs and highlighted a few things. I am not a doctor so I don't understand all the jargon. If any of my doctor friends ID things I should take down I will, but I think this info needs to be circulated.

2/

What I take (by reading between the lines)from that one above is that when hospitals hit capacity the 14% that require hospitalization lose the chance to fight it and become critical as well.

Which is why I say when we hit capacity fatality hops from 3-5% to 20%

3/

Too much ER Doctor jargon in here for me to withdraw anything useful to the lay people, but I feel Doctor's that have not faced a lot of cases of #CoV19 yet should get this info

4/

Again this is for the doctors on the ground. Plz get this info to them if you can.

5/

Intubation is not an assurance of survival. People only have a14-30% chance of survival once it gets to that point.

6/

This is more info that is more useful to doctors on the ground, not us the concerned citizens on Twitter. I don't take credit for this, it came from friend of friend of friend through FB sharing. I'm not a doctor.

7/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=55&v=XXt1-qEjKlE&feature=emb_logo

OK gonna take a beat and circle back. Rock out to @samanthajayne from #CAKEFX. We'll talk Exponential numbers next.

8/

OK I broke to eat dinner too. Still have my appetite, which is good cause losing it is a #CoV19 symptom.

So. Exponential numbers.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponentiation

Basically the doubling every 3-4 days we see is exponential movement.

9/

If you still don't get the idea, here's a visualization. The longer the pattern holds the quicker the spread is, the more massive the spread is. That is how #CoV19 will continue to spread unless we flatten the curve.

10/

My own projections were a bit off last week because I was expecting doubling every 2-3 days, but it is currently doubling every 3-4. I will do numbers again Saturday after we meet my Friday night projection 7k dead (or not)

10/

But after accounting for the 3-4 days of doubling I still calculated :

225K Dead April 23rd
900K Dead May 1st

Some regions will flatten the curve by then, but Nationally we're not there yet.

11/ https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/27/upshot/coronavirus-new-york-comparison.html?fbclid=IwAR19YQyR5T7gLAqROehyVCb64kCWG5H0bfxWq8mlB36Q6_dbrh7c9gjzf2E

Some U.S. Cities Could Have Coronavirus Outbreaks Worse Than Wuhan’s

Four ways to measure the size of the outbreak across U.S. metro areas.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/27/upshot/coronavirus-new-york-comparison.html?fbclid=IwAR19YQyR5T7gLAqROehyVCb64kCWG5H0bfxWq8mlB36Q6_dbrh7c9gjzf2E

It's impossible to flatten the curve for all of USA until we're ALL enacting proper protocols. Some states have been flat out screwed by their governor's responses. For example, me in Florida.

12/ https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article241487396.html?fbclid=IwAR2xF-HqUx5Y2mgYRkYrem72D1M4RkgBhfJMBqD6GoXNejebLS6QkZ81lf8

Like playing ‘Russian roulette’: DeSantis won’t say which elder care homes have coronavirus

Elder advocates are calling them cruise ships on dry land: Close to 200,000 Floridians live in nursing homes and retirement homes, which could become incubators for disease among sometimes frail...

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article241487396.html?fbclid=IwAR2xF-HqUx5Y2mgYRkYrem72D1M4RkgBhfJMBqD6GoXNejebLS6QkZ81lf8

I guess it's never too late to welcome Tennessee into the year 2020. We need a unified response Nationally or Exponential Numbers are gonna keep killing us.

13/ https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2020/04/02/gov-bill-lee-issues-stay-home-mandate-tennessee-continues-fight-spread-coronavirus/5112202002/

Gov. Bill Lee orders Tennesseans to stay at home as state continues to fight spread of coronavirus

Gov. Bill Lee made the announcement Thursday.

https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2020/04/02/gov-bill-lee-issues-stay-home-mandate-tennessee-continues-fight-spread-coronavirus/5112202002/

Sheer population density is taking its toll on NYC which is now the global epicenter. This was two weeks ago.

14/

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/25/nyregion/nyc-coronavirus-hospitals.html?fbclid=IwAR0QsLLcrAY2Nz6nFz6qzvY6zHKhKUBtkthMmBiosXBXSkSCW0DdGk18_Nc

As long as NYC is dependent on their subway system to get their workers to the hospitals (and shipping centers) we will not be able to flatten the curve.

15/

I had been using WaPo's page to follow stats but I don't think they're staying on top of it properly, so this is now my primary source for following deaths/infections.

16/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Another quick musical interlude as I finish eating.

This is @lkx47 Leikeli47, my current favorite rapper.

"miss miss miss me with the bullshit"

17/

Now some of us think we got #CoV19 as early as January. Many asymptomatic ppl will never suspect they have it. Some people with mild cases might not even suspect they have it. Like our resident super hero Greta

18/ https://www.courthousenews.com/greta-thunberg-reports-recovery-from-what-was-likely-covid-19/

Greta Thunberg Reports Recovery From What Was Likely Covid-19

Self-isolating for the better part of the month, Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg called it "extremely likely" Tuesday that she had contracted the new coronavirus during a trip to central...

https://www.courthousenews.com/greta-thunberg-reports-recovery-from-what-was-likely-covid-19/

This thread is one of the most concise on safety that I have seen on Twitter. Unlike me, she IS a doctor.

19/ https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1243207848474988549.html

Thread by @Drsunandambal: 1 Johns Hopkins University, sent this excellent summary to avoid contag...

Thread by @Drsunandambal: 1 Johns Hopkins University, sent this excellent summary to avoid contagion share it with you because it is very clerus is not a living organism, but a protein molecule (DNA)...

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1243207848474988549.html

This is why drinking tea every two hours can actually help beat #CoV19. Melt it and flush it to the stomach where it is not a lethal flooding of your lungs.

I've been drinking tea A LOT.

20/ https://www.accuweather.com/en/health-wellness/higher-temperatures-affect-survival-of-new-coronavirus-pathologist-says/700800

Higher temperatures affect survival of new coronavirus, pathologist says

A doctor who has been studying a lab-grown copy of SARS-CoV-2 under a microscope says new research shows temperature levels can impact the spread.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/health-wellness/higher-temperatures-affect-survival-of-new-coronavirus-pathologist-says/700800

Youth does not make you invulnerable, and doctors & nurses exposed to a lot of it become more susceptible.

21/ https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/13/world/asia/coronavirus-death-life.html?fbclid=IwAR3L29gnEwZTbGRkBk2hBTI1y6OhiyPXWGrrG6ij0swk4iE_ul61sOo3kFg

Two Women Fell Sick From the Coronavirus. One Survived.

The young medical professionals came down with fevers. Within weeks, they were both lying in hospital beds, hooked up to IVs or oxygen machines.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/13/world/asia/coronavirus-death-life.html?fbclid=IwAR3L29gnEwZTbGRkBk2hBTI1y6OhiyPXWGrrG6ij0swk4iE_ul61sOo3kFg

I personally had a 4-5 day fever in January that I believe was one of the strains of #CoV19. But as I was never tested and since there are TWO phenotypes, I am waiting to beat both before I think of myself as seasonally safe.

22/ https://www.newscientist.com/article/2236544-coronavirus-are-there-two-strains-and-is-one-more-deadly/

Coronavirus: Are there two strains and is one more deadly? | New Scientist

Researchers in China say there are two strains of the new coronavirus, one of which is more aggressive – but the World Health Organization says the virus is stable

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2236544-coronavirus-are-there-two-strains-and-is-one-more-deadly/

I won't be able to know if I beat one or both strains though, until we develop the antibody test.

23/ http://theconversation.com/antibody-tests-to-get-a-grip-on-coronavirus-we-need-to-know-whos-already-had-it-134547

Antibody tests: to get a grip on coronavirus, we need to know who's already had it

A test that detects antibodies against the coronavirus behind COVID-19 would reveal those people who have already encountered the virus - and therefore who might be ok to resume normal life.

http://theconversation.com/antibody-tests-to-get-a-grip-on-coronavirus-we-need-to-know-whos-already-had-it-134547

We need to protect our Doctors, Nurses, Truckers and Food Workers in this Crisis. This bullshit needs to stop.

24/ https://www.rawstory.com/2020/03/landlords-booting-out-nurses-over-coronavirus-fears-and-grocery-workers-could-be-next/?fbclid=IwAR3wiTyXjyhERnZseGEOQbovVvZMB_Ntb72xvHCGDKzG8Zlol49dg46IWvU

Landlords booting out nurses over coronavirus fears — and grocery workers could be next

Nurses are reporting that their landlords have kicked them out of their homes over concerns about coronavirus contamination. One Las Vegas nurse told The Daily Beast she had just finished a shift...

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/03/landlords-booting-out-nurses-over-coronavirus-fears-and-grocery-workers-could-be-next/?fbclid=IwAR3wiTyXjyhERnZseGEOQbovVvZMB_Ntb72xvHCGDKzG8Zlol49dg46IWvU

This one is a long musical Interlude so I can have some ice cream then brush my teeth.

"Lucy took a walk, now Lucy's dead."

bbiaf

25/

So it's time to talk about Intentional Spread. We know that there have been crazy cults that spread it on purpose, #Patient31 for example. This guy was intentionally coughing on ppl before he died on the train.

26/ https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/covid-19-thailand-man-dies-train-pakistan-12599636

Man found dead on Thai train tests positive for COVID-19

A man found dead on a passenger train in Thailand has tested positive for the coronavirus, officials said Wednesday, as the country's death toll ...

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/covid-19-thailand-man-dies-train-pakistan-12599636

Also in Thailand they are looking into this event that occurred despite lockdown. Whether intentional or not it was a Super Spreader incident.

27/ https://www.khaosodenglish.com/news/crimecourtscalamity/2020/03/26/army-orders-probe-in-super-spreader-boxing-match/

Army Orders Probe in Super-Spreader Boxing Match

BANGKOK — Following days of widespread criticism, the army chief on Thursday said he ordered an investigation into a boxing match blamed for the largest cluster of coronavirus infections in Thailand.

https://www.khaosodenglish.com/news/crimecourtscalamity/2020/03/26/army-orders-probe-in-super-spreader-boxing-match/

This also seems accidental, but holy shit India is about to have some scary numbers.

28/ https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/1888290/case-of-super-spreader-guru-alarms-india

Case of 'super-spreader' guru alarms India

NEW DELHI: At least 15,000 people who may have caught the coronavirus from a “super-spreader” guru are under strict quarantine in northern India after the Sikh religious leader died of Covid-19.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/1888290/case-of-super-spreader-guru-alarms-india

Which brings us to last night when @VickerySec said what many of us have been thinking in 4 succinct Tweets.

29/ https://threader.app/thread/1245538538138959874

A thread written by @VickerySec

What would be a supremely evil way to kill off a huge amount of people who do not vote for you (while claiming plausible deniability in the end)? Even a pandemic might not work, because modern...

https://threader.app/thread/1245538538138959874

Trumpov has known for a very long time. And He's also been working against out pandemic response capabilities for a long time.

30/ https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/19/us/politics/trump-coronavirus-outbreak.html

Before Virus Outbreak, a Cascade of Warnings Went Unheeded

Government exercises, including one last year, made clear that the U.S. was not ready for a pandemic like the coronavirus. But little was done.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/19/us/politics/trump-coronavirus-outbreak.html

Andddd he kept on downplaying it.

31/ https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/15/opinion/trump-coronavirus.html

Opinion | A Complete List of Trump’s Attempts to Play Down Coronavirus

He could have taken action. He didn’t.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/15/opinion/trump-coronavirus.html

But he did have a weird visit to Walter Reed that coincided with the first #CoV19 known on Earth in China November 17th. (File that for later)

32/ https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/17/politics/trump-physical-walter-reed-protocol-routine-presidential-visit/index.html

Trump's visit to Walter Reed 'not protocol' for routine visit, source says

President Donald Trump's visit to Walter Reed on Saturday did not follow the protocol of a routine presidential medical exam, according to a person familiar with the matter.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/17/politics/trump-physical-walter-reed-protocol-routine-presidential-visit/index.html

He went on to give away literal TONS of our PPE & medical equipment.

33/ https://www.state.gov/the-united-states-announces-assistance-to-combat-the-novel-coronavirus/?fbclid=IwAR3UcRhsDhsxuG8RoB4mMKtntw4t-g0f-RAWCDAkeBLk_05fA8dpYsa0Dfk

The United States Announces Assistance To Combat the Novel Coronavirus - United States Department...

The U.S. is prepared to spend up to $100 million in existing funds to assist China and other impacted countries to contain and combat the novel coronavirus.

https://www.state.gov/the-united-states-announces-assistance-to-combat-the-novel-coronavirus/?fbclid=IwAR3UcRhsDhsxuG8RoB4mMKtntw4t-g0f-RAWCDAkeBLk_05fA8dpYsa0Dfk

He gave away our supplies SEVERAL times.

34/ https://www.usaid.gov/asia-regional/press-releases/mar-9-2020-us-provides-personal-protective-equipment-royal-thai-covid-19?fbclid=IwAR1aDUrgkExcyUVBYg-hU2bqNF6yidS7HjUsjZkk1k96FvKufGPFmZdkNhI

U.S. Provides Personal Protective Equipment to the Royal Thai

United States Agency for International Development (USAID) Regional Development Mission for Asia Mission Director Peter A. Malnak handed over personal protective equipment (PPE) to the Ministry of

https://www.usaid.gov/asia-regional/press-releases/mar-9-2020-us-provides-personal-protective-equipment-royal-thai-covid-19?fbclid=IwAR1aDUrgkExcyUVBYg-hU2bqNF6yidS7HjUsjZkk1k96FvKufGPFmZdkNhI

He's also (predictably) turned the crisis into a way to campaign and be a general blackmailing mobster.

35/ https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/03/how-republicans-and-democrats-think-about-coronavirus/608395/?fbclid=IwAR1d77DU7uHHRYvMupx4Q6JndFXzxLGwjGswsRyy2gtkxbZofToXHO8Hguw

Red and Blue America Aren’t Experiencing the Same Pandemic

The disconnect is already shaping, even distorting, the nation’s response.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/03/how-republicans-and-democrats-think-about-coronavirus/608395/?fbclid=IwAR1d77DU7uHHRYvMupx4Q6JndFXzxLGwjGswsRyy2gtkxbZofToXHO8Hguw

Some of the equipment we do have has lapsed in its usefulness. This again could have been prevented.

36/ https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/us/politics/coronavirus-ventilators.html

A Ventilator Stockpile, With One Hitch: Thousands Do Not Work

While President Trump has assured states that thousands of ventilators remain at the ready, thousands more are in storage, unmaintained, broken or otherwise unusable.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/us/politics/coronavirus-ventilators.html

I personally still think this could have been developed in a Russian lab and this guy wants to accept their help? I reallllly think RU will only send us tainted and useless equipment. (or sell us our own stuff back)

37/ https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/russian-plane-coronavirus-medical-gear-lands-u-s-after-trump-n1174436

Russian plane with coronavirus medical gear lands in U.S. after Trump-Putin call

A Russian military transport plane left an airfield outside Moscow and arrived at New York's John F. Kennedy airport in late afternoon on Wednesday.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/russian-plane-coronavirus-medical-gear-lands-u-s-after-trump-n1174436

He goes on TV everyday to spread #deza and rile up his not-so-smart base. His message is making things worse daily.

38/ https://www.salon.com/2020/04/02/trump-empowered-conspiracy-theorists-now-theyre-threatening-public-health-and-safety/

Trump empowered conspiracy theorists: Now they're a major threat to public health and safety

Trump's tribe of wackos spirals out of control: Threats against Fauci, a deliberate train crash. What's next?

https://www.salon.com/2020/04/02/trump-empowered-conspiracy-theorists-now-theyre-threatening-public-health-and-safety/

To the point that it seems his Qanon brainiacs are going to be attacking hospitals and aid shipments. Cause they already are.

39/ https://abcnews.go.com/US/engineer-allegedly-crash-train-usns-mercy-los-angeles/story?id=69926172

Engineer tried to crash train into USNS Mercy in Los Angeles: Feds

A California train engineer was arrested after he allegedly derailed a locomotive to strike the Navy medical ship used to treat patients.

https://abcnews.go.com/US/engineer-allegedly-crash-train-usns-mercy-los-angeles/story?id=69926172

Ok gonna pause for another Musical Interlude then close out with hopeful and helpful stuff.

40/

There's no denying it's getting grim. We don't have to go all the way to Iran to see bodies piling up.

41/ https://www.syracuse.com/coronavirus/2020/04/report-rikers-island-inmates-offered-6-per-hour-to-dig-mass-graves-in-nyc.html

Report: Rikers Island inmates offered $6 per hour to dig mass graves in NYC

The move comes from a pandemic response plan drawn up in 2008 by NYC’s chief medical examiner.

https://www.syracuse.com/coronavirus/2020/04/report-rikers-island-inmates-offered-6-per-hour-to-dig-mass-graves-in-nyc.html

The numbers I base my math off of might be low, because of several factors.

42/ https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/nidhiprakash/coronavirus-update-dead-covid19-doctors-hospitals?fbclid=IwAR0AD7poLSk6Sd8jTBKNWixrGfQuGWTckOe0UdhvMA68tK-3oRvsAOWm2Rw

Doctors And Nurses Say More People Are Dying Of COVID-19 In The US Than We Know

“The numbers are grossly underreported. I know for a fact that we’ve had three deaths in one county where only one is listed on the website,” one California ER doctor told BuzzFeed News.

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/nidhiprakash/coronavirus-update-dead-covid19-doctors-hospitals?fbclid=IwAR0AD7poLSk6Sd8jTBKNWixrGfQuGWTckOe0UdhvMA68tK-3oRvsAOWm2Rw

Not least in those factors is that we don't know how many people are dead at home. Especially in huge cities like NYC, Detroit, NOLA.

43/ https://nypost.com/2020/03/30/bronx-coronavirus-victims-body-left-in-home-for-24-hours-before-collected/?utm_source=twitter_sitebuttons&utm_medium=site+buttons&utm_campaign=site+buttons&fbclid=IwAR0Jp1oyMEdnaHKeOqSAV6zFrfwALm7f9Ye1ffySZZ7MgS4qldyzGdlxkTo

Bronx coronavirus victim’s body left in home for 24 hours before being collected

A Bronx woman who died of suspected coronavirus complications was left to rot in her bed for more than 24 hours before inundated city officials came to pick up her body — while her distraught

https://nypost.com/2020/03/30/bronx-coronavirus-victims-body-left-in-home-for-24-hours-before-collected/?utm_source=twitter_sitebuttons&utm_medium=site+buttons&utm_campaign=site+buttons&fbclid=IwAR0Jp1oyMEdnaHKeOqSAV6zFrfwALm7f9Ye1ffySZZ7MgS4qldyzGdlxkTo

But there IS Hope. The immediacy of the Crisis is leading to groundbreaking new approaches to networking the cure collectively. But I told you to file the Walter Reed visit for later, yeah?

44/ https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/who-launches-global-megatrial-four-most-promising-coronavirus-treatments?fbclid=IwAR2XdicTe5g6aSfQCiXgkhxdc9YXN-9bhzZ_5Qn3xT_9IVg-j9Mk89OF9Ws

WHO launches global megatrial of the four most promising coronavirus treatments

Simple design aims to let even overwhelmed physicians and hospitals participate

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/who-launches-global-megatrial-four-most-promising-coronavirus-treatments?fbclid=IwAR2XdicTe5g6aSfQCiXgkhxdc9YXN-9bhzZ_5Qn3xT_9IVg-j9Mk89OF9Ws

It has been theorized that Trumpov & perhaps some other ppl in his circle have been taking HIV meds that 'may' work to preventive/suppress bad case of #CoV19. His paint job would cover it but it causes blotches on the skin from what I understand.
#GOPutin use is theoretical.

45/

Also, no matter how bad it gets, brilliant minds are working hard to make it easier for us to maximize our response to the outbreak.

46/ https://scitechdaily.com/mit-posts-free-plans-online-for-an-emergency-ventilator-that-can-be-built-for-100/?fbclid=IwAR1jYkD-6f9TWRFt8gMp1a3JRYHxIL4Lz7G5RhAaDSeW_B36r_paGCxnnzk

MIT Will Post Free Plans Online for an Emergency Ventilator That Can Be Built for $100

Clinical and design considerations will be published online; goal is to support rapid scale-up of device production to alleviate hospital shortages. One of the most pressing shortages facing hospit...

https://scitechdaily.com/mit-posts-free-plans-online-for-an-emergency-ventilator-that-can-be-built-for-100/?fbclid=IwAR1jYkD-6f9TWRFt8gMp1a3JRYHxIL4Lz7G5RhAaDSeW_B36r_paGCxnnzk

Being stuck at home doesn't mean we're helpless. There are things we can be doing.

47/

I am working on some of these soon.

48/

Some people are going above and beyond the call of duty.

49/ https://twitter.com/soychicka/status/1245415755606372353

https://twitter.com/soychicka/status/1245415755606372353

But even video gaming can be done in pursuit of battling #CoV19. You can feel useful. I was going nuts so I organized and wrote this thread.

50/ https://www.smh.com.au/national/this-game-helps-scientists-design-covid-drugs-they-want-you-to-play-20200330-p54fby.html

This game helps scientists design COVID drugs. They want you to play

Scientists hope to find coronavirus cure by getting users to solve 3D puzzles fitting complex proteins together in a cross between 3D Tetris and Minecraft.

https://www.smh.com.au/national/this-game-helps-scientists-design-covid-drugs-they-want-you-to-play-20200330-p54fby.html

Find productive things to do, eat healthy, use sani every 15 minutes and do your Social Distancing. It feels like the end of the world, but MOST of us will get through this.

51/

Thx for reading. I hope some of it helps somebody somewhere. I'll leave you with one last song from that time @SPRORGNSM was on #LegionFX.

52/52

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