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1/10 Mar. 18: PEMEX celebrated Oil Nationalization Day at its HQ with hundreds in attendance. Despite massive demand destruction and the Saudi-Russia incited supply war on Mar 8, there was no sense of urgency, and no announced reductions to CAPEX or meaningful changes in strategy
3/10 Mar. 23: The Mexican Peso hit MX$ 25.34/ US$ 1.00, a 35.4% devaluation compared to Feb. 16.
4/10 Mar. 26: S&P downgraded Mexico, PEMEX and CFE from BBB+ to BBB, with negative outlooks. S&P also lowered PEMEX’s standalone credit rating to CCC+, a clear reflection of the company’s questionable ongoing viability without major government support.
5/10 Mar. 26: JP Morgan Chase cut its 2020 Mexico GDP estimate to -7%. To place in perspective, not even during Mexico’s economic crises during the 1970’s, 1980’s or 1990’s did Mexico’s economy contract that much. On Apr. 2, BofA lowered their 2020 GDP estimate to -8%.
6/10 Mar. 27: CRE did not approve CENAGAS’ Five Year Plan, requesting CENAGAS to consider and analyze additional projects.
7/10 Mar. 30: The MX oil basket fell to US$ 10.37/ barrel, a price level last seen on July 30, 1998.
8/10 While gasoline prices in Mexico fell by 18.68% in 1Q 2020, U.S. gasoline prices fell 24.37% during the same time period. The IEPS tax is the main culprit for the differential.
9/10 Plans for the government to launch its long-anticipated energy infrastructure plan to stimulate economic activity once again in March did not materialize, and will likely be shelved for now
10/10 All administrative procedures handled by public energy sector offices have been suspended until April 30 due to COVID-19.
