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You desperate for a concrete number as to how long this takes? Here it is:
By June 2022.
That& #39;s it. Hope you like it.
And I& #39;m dead serious, because we have three options to beat this thing:
Option 1: Stamp it out completely. Eradicate the virus by preventing it from...
By June 2022.
That& #39;s it. Hope you like it.
And I& #39;m dead serious, because we have three options to beat this thing:
Option 1: Stamp it out completely. Eradicate the virus by preventing it from...
...from spreading to another single host. Across the globe.
(From my standpoint, NOT happening)
Option 2: Herd immunity by allowing the virus to infect somewhere between 60% and 90% of the population so that there aren& #39;t enough non-immune hosts left. PROBLEMS:...
(From my standpoint, NOT happening)
Option 2: Herd immunity by allowing the virus to infect somewhere between 60% and 90% of the population so that there aren& #39;t enough non-immune hosts left. PROBLEMS:...
Right now the resolved cases/deaths ratio is about 4:1, or 20% fatality rate. The serious cases hover around 5% of the active cases. Extrapolating from that (and leaving aside the potential for the mortality rate to climb if outbreaks worsen) we have a mortality of between...
...5% and 20% of 60-90% (let& #39;s say 70%) of 7.8 billion people. Let& #39;s conservatively say it& #39;s around 8% as per the initial modelling. That& #39;s 8% of 70% of 7.8 billion people. Let& #39;s half that number for purely whimsical reasons. 8% of 70% of 3.9 billion. Math says: roughly...
...450,000,000. Dead. I find that kind of a steep cost, personally.
Option 3: Control the spread as much as possible, isolating for the most part, preventing mass outbreaks, until a workable and effective vaccine is available. Vaccines are already being experimented with...
Option 3: Control the spread as much as possible, isolating for the most part, preventing mass outbreaks, until a workable and effective vaccine is available. Vaccines are already being experimented with...
...but here& #39;s the thing: vaccines have to be tested, controlled, effectiveness assessed, side effects limited, chemical reagents optimized, etc. That takes time--a year at least before it& #39;s starting to get in the population in a meaningful way, and time after that...
...before we can be certain it& #39;s worked. So, optimally, a year or more of various measures to contain the spread; likely a year to two years. Now you& #39;ve got a date and a reason it& #39;s that date. June 2022. Now what are you going to do with that knowledge?
Assumptions in this thread come from various sources, perhaps best summarized here: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-will-coronavirus-end/608719/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share">https://www.theatlantic.com/health/ar...
