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You desperate for a concrete number as to how long this takes? Here it is:
By June 2022.
That's it. Hope you like it.
And I'm dead serious, because we have three options to beat this thing:
Option 1: Stamp it out completely. Eradicate the virus by preventing it from...
By June 2022.
That's it. Hope you like it.
And I'm dead serious, because we have three options to beat this thing:
Option 1: Stamp it out completely. Eradicate the virus by preventing it from...
...from spreading to another single host. Across the globe.
(From my standpoint, NOT happening)
Option 2: Herd immunity by allowing the virus to infect somewhere between 60% and 90% of the population so that there aren't enough non-immune hosts left. PROBLEMS:...
(From my standpoint, NOT happening)
Option 2: Herd immunity by allowing the virus to infect somewhere between 60% and 90% of the population so that there aren't enough non-immune hosts left. PROBLEMS:...
Right now the resolved cases/deaths ratio is about 4:1, or 20% fatality rate. The serious cases hover around 5% of the active cases. Extrapolating from that (and leaving aside the potential for the mortality rate to climb if outbreaks worsen) we have a mortality of between...
...5% and 20% of 60-90% (let's say 70%) of 7.8 billion people. Let's conservatively say it's around 8% as per the initial modelling. That's 8% of 70% of 7.8 billion people. Let's half that number for purely whimsical reasons. 8% of 70% of 3.9 billion. Math says: roughly...
...450,000,000. Dead. I find that kind of a steep cost, personally.
Option 3: Control the spread as much as possible, isolating for the most part, preventing mass outbreaks, until a workable and effective vaccine is available. Vaccines are already being experimented with...
Option 3: Control the spread as much as possible, isolating for the most part, preventing mass outbreaks, until a workable and effective vaccine is available. Vaccines are already being experimented with...
...but here's the thing: vaccines have to be tested, controlled, effectiveness assessed, side effects limited, chemical reagents optimized, etc. That takes time--a year at least before it's starting to get in the population in a meaningful way, and time after that...
...before we can be certain it's worked. So, optimally, a year or more of various measures to contain the spread; likely a year to two years. Now you've got a date and a reason it's that date. June 2022. Now what are you going to do with that knowledge?
Assumptions in this thread come from various sources, perhaps best summarized here: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-will-coronavirus-end/608719/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share
