Technologies create entire ecosystems that prevent other possible ecosystems emerging.

Improving on an existing technology can be more profitable than investigating its alternative. This is called path dependency.

Through path dependencies it is possible to nudge the future economy to be more human-centric or more AI-centric.

The important distinction is between automating tasks that humans excel at and those they fare poorly at. The latter makes human labor more valuable.

Any technology, be it material or social, that improves human capital is immensely important in such path dependencies as well.


A paper well worth reading! It shows automation doesn't work the way the literature and science reporters propose.

Excessive technological determinism is usually rooted not in understanding of technology, but an unstated models of society.

The overconfidence comes out of narrowly examining a technology (solar panels, rockets, machine learning) rather than revising view of society.

Even with this difficult futurism, there are choices a society can make.

It is important we focus on developing technologies that can push our society on a track of developing human capital rather than depleting it.

This becomes only more important in the immediate aftermath of #COVID19. Automation and virtualization will be important factors of the early economic recovery, but we mustn't stop there.

Credentialing has to be reformed. As must housing and employment.

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