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Nationally, the current doubling time for the spread of the SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, is 3 days. However, with strict physical distancing measures in effect in the Bay Area and in Sacramento county, our doubling time is now at 6 days. https://coviz.us/
While that doesn't sound like much, we are talking about effectively doubling an exponential multiplier, which means that strict physical distancing measures have actually led to a massive shift in the curve.
With our projected peak now at April 28th, and new orders for the Bay Area to maintain physical distancing measures through May 3rd, we are more likely reduce the number of cases until we have had enough time to prepare and expand capacity. https://twitter.com/tnicholsmd/status/1245401687600148482?s=20
There may be a surge right after physical distancing measures are lifted if we are not careful, with this done gradually. @GavinNewsom has done an excellent job of managing thus far, and I wouldn't be surprised if he does a good job rolling out gradual lifting of these measures.
While that will spare us from being completely overwhelmed as we've seen in Italy and Spain and New York, we'll still be facing this crisis in hospitals and clinics across the country for many months, and we will all have to continue to adjust and adapt.
Just because we get past the peak without being completely overwhelmed in terms of health care resources or infrastructure doesn't mean we can declare victory or that this is all over.
Let's be very clear here: this is far from over.
Let's be very clear here: this is far from over.
In the time that we have had to prepare as a result of strict physical distancing, we have ramped up our testing capacity and hopefully will continue to do so with rapid, high volume screening.
South Korea was screening enough people that they had a positive rate of less than 3%
South Korea was screening enough people that they had a positive rate of less than 3%
While that may seem incredibly low, and therefore, not beneficial, the opposite is actually true in this situation. The more we can test and adequately screen people, including when they may be asymptomatic or early in their illness, the better we can track spread
"The world’s richest country...squandered its best chance of containing the virus’s spread. Instead, Americans were left largely blind to the scale of a looming public health catastrophe...." https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/28/us/testing-coronavirus-pandemic.html
"...The absence of robust screening until 'far too late' revealed failures across the government."
I cannot overstate this point. I'll explain more another time, but keep this in mind. The management of this crisis has been an abject failure. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/28/us/testing-coronavirus-pandemic.html
I cannot overstate this point. I'll explain more another time, but keep this in mind. The management of this crisis has been an abject failure. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/28/us/testing-coronavirus-pandemic.html
The good news is, by the time the peak hits for us here as we maintain #PhysicalDistancing, we will have ramped up testing for active infections, and hopefully soon will have reliable and validated antibody testing that we will be able to bring to scale.
Antibody testing checks for different versions of immunoglobulin or Ig, including IgM - which shows active infection - and more importantly for IgG to see who has previously been infected and developed antibodies.
While we haven't yet determined if the presence of antibodies confers complete immunity against SARS-CoV-2, which causesCOVID-19, I'm sure we'll learn more over the next month as we give ourselves more time to prepare through continued #PhysicalDistancing.
If we determine that antibodies confer complete immunity and we are able to roll out antibody testing on a widespread scale, we will be able to determine who is immune to further SARS-CoV-2 infections. But why does that matter?
Here's why: allowing folks with SARS-CoV-2 immunity to start breaking physical distancing earlier could be effective at keeping the machinery of society up and running and yet still reduce the spread, because those people with immunity can "break the chain" of transmission.
And of course, as I was writing this thread, this is released: https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/02/health/fda-coronavirus-antibody-test-authorization/index.html
