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1/ The entire world is consumed by the rapid spread of COVID-19.
@CSISHealth experts Steve Morrison and Anna Carroll look at what a post-COVID-19 world might look like and what paths the pandemic might take. https://www.csis.org/analysis/which-covid-19-future-will-we-choose
@CSISHealth experts Steve Morrison and Anna Carroll look at what a post-COVID-19 world might look like and what paths the pandemic might take. https://www.csis.org/analysis/which-covid-19-future-will-we-choose
2/ The virus is widely understood to be much more transmissible and fatal than seasonal influenza, which is helping to fuel the COVID-19 pandemic.
3/ There are several additional unknowns that will influence the pandemic’s trajectory. These drivers fall into three main categories: the virus itself, government tools, and technology.
4/ The nature of COVID-19 immunity, its seasonality, and its ability to mutate, will all play a major role in determining the severity and duration of the pandemic.
5/ Additionally, government tools including extreme social distancing measures and national testing + contact tracing systems could help to control and suppress outbreaks.
6/ @CSISHealth outlines three possible scenarios for the COVID-19 pandemic:
1. Best Case – Rapid Recovery
2. Mixed Case – Rollercoaster
3. Worst Case – Decline and Catastrophe
1. Best Case – Rapid Recovery
2. Mixed Case – Rollercoaster
3. Worst Case – Decline and Catastrophe
7/ The best-case scenario occurs with immediate aggressive social distancing, nationally coordinated delivery of medical supplies to hot spots, & expanded testing.
Recovery happens in other parts of the world and a vaccine is equitably distributed.
Up to 240,000 U.S. deaths.
Recovery happens in other parts of the world and a vaccine is equitably distributed.
Up to 240,000 U.S. deaths.
8/ The mixed-case scenario would occur after a fragmented response and squandered time which lead to multiple hotspots in urban centers.
It will take months to flatten the curve and social distancing measures will last significantly longer.
Up to 1 million U.S. deaths.
It will take months to flatten the curve and social distancing measures will last significantly longer.
Up to 1 million U.S. deaths.
9/ The worst-case scenario would occur with an abject failure to institute social distancing, deploy testing and deliver medical supplies.
The healthcare system becomes untenably overwhelmed and a vaccine takes 5-10 years to produce.
Up to 2.2 million U.S. deaths.
The healthcare system becomes untenably overwhelmed and a vaccine takes 5-10 years to produce.
Up to 2.2 million U.S. deaths.
10/ Pandemics change history.
They transform populations, states, societies, economies, norms and governing structures.
Political choices matter profoundly in determining outcomes.
They transform populations, states, societies, economies, norms and governing structures.
Political choices matter profoundly in determining outcomes.
11/ What we need now:
1. Act early/aggressively
2. National shutdown for 4-8 weeks
3. Centralize command structure for medical supplies delivery
4. National surveillance systems for testing/contact tracing
5. Invest in therapeutics and vaccines
6. Provide a social safety net
1. Act early/aggressively
2. National shutdown for 4-8 weeks
3. Centralize command structure for medical supplies delivery
4. National surveillance systems for testing/contact tracing
5. Invest in therapeutics and vaccines
6. Provide a social safety net
12/The time to act is now. https://www.csis.org/analysis/which-covid-19-future-will-we-choose
