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Apparently many people don't seem to understand how reelectable POTUS is, how badly the Democrats often play into his hands, and how the apparatus around him both governs his administration and turns what you think is weakness into strengths. So let's explain. (1/x)
It all starts with the reelection campaign that, unprecedentedly, has existed since day one of his term. Remember, it's run by his family. First they collect and analyze data, through polling, facebook mining, and other ways. Some are likely illegal, but you know...prove it.
They aren't targeting the "base," which is what many seem to think. Goal is to gain converts, retain 2016 nose holders, find new disenchanted voters who can be convinced to vote for the first time in years, given the right motivation. All in key states, of course.
Many keep making the mistake of underestimating POTUS' chances. He doesn't plan. He's not a genius. He's an idiot. But the campaign's data is VERY sophisticated. And it's in the hands of people well versed in translating raw materials into results for this man.
Lara, Eric, Ivanka, et al are able to come up with very good analysis and reduce it to the transactional nature POTUS likes. They generate recommendations for actions, decisions, priorities. Tangible ways to check the boxes for those voters' wants. They make it easy for him.
EX: 10K freq voters in NC average as 42% likely to vote for him, but worry about treatment of women; pardon a woman and it increases to 49%. Or 5K nose holders in MI, now 63% likely to skip Nov, fear paycheck impact of COVID19; Blame Gov & give bailout = 57% they vote again.
It's all boiled down to mostly little actions. POTUS then takes those recommendations and executes, holds it in the bottom drawer, or dreams up another method to check the box. A lot of times, he likes to pull something out of the bottom drawer when publicity looks bad.
Some people think that POTUS has good political instincts, despite being otherwise inept. Not quite true. He's very emotional, and that's what he's attuned to. He understands how to leverage others' pain into his gain. So sometimes he comes up with the checkbox himself.
In either case, once he's chosen to proceed with the transaction, he launches it off, in no particular order. When people complain it's erratic, he just smiles because he knows he's working on info you don't see. He mistakes this for being genius, so he doesn't care.
The result is a chaotic administration with no coherent plan most times, where it's difficult to make sense of it all. But all the while, the reelection machine that will generate the necessary level of voters in the necessary states is being built.
The mistake many make is to think that a reelection necessarily flows through the same path his governance has taken. As if, YOU not seeing *logical governance* means the pieces won't add up to something else. It doesn't matter, because YOU were never going to vote for him.
But come November, there are a great many people for whom all the necessary pieces are present; many people, when making their decision, will find that POTUS has given a great many of the things they most care about (even if they don't like other things).
If there is one thing that contributes to reelection the most, it's denial by his critics. Every time someone says "It's not going to work, it's not working" they prove that prove that it WILL work and it IS working. This POTUS is dangerously close to reelection.
This has been the whole story of this administration since day one. It's always been nothing more than a lens that focuses everything on reelection. Anything you couldn't understand, this is why. If Dems ignore it, they'll lose in Nov yet again. (/end)
