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The IMHE model for the Wuhan coronavirus that the White House is relying on is garbage. It is using NY/NJ data and applying it to the rest of the U.S.
It predicted that over 121,000 Americans would be hospitalized yesterday over the coronavirus. The actual number? 31,142.
It predicted that over 121,000 Americans would be hospitalized yesterday over the coronavirus. The actual number? 31,142.
Let's look at some state data. The IMHE model predicted that 1,716 people in Texas would have been hospitalized yesterday due to the Wuhan coronavirus. The actual number of hospitalized Texans? 196 people.
In Georgia, the IMHE model predicted that as of yesterday, 2,777 peole would have been hospitalized due to the Wuhan coronavirus. The actual number of people hospitalized in Georgia? 952.
In Virginia, the IMHE model predicted that 607 Virginians would have been hospitalized as of yesterday due to the Wuhan coronavirus. The actual number? 305.
In Tennessee, the IMHE model predicted that 2,214 people in Tennessee would have been hospitalized by yesterday due to the Wuhan coronavirus. The actual number? 200.
In New York, the IMHE model predicted that as of yesterday, 50,962 people would have been hospitalized as of yesterday due to the Wuhan coronavirus. The actual number? 18,368.
All projection data can be found here: https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections .
All historical hospitalization data can be found here: https://covidtracking.com/data/ .
All historical hospitalization data can be found here: https://covidtracking.com/data/ .
If we're going to shut down the entire nation's economy to "flatten the curve" based on the projections of a single model, it shouldn't be too much to ask that the model approximate reality when it comes to hospitalizations.
