The century of the Black Death began with a mini ice age and torrential rain, ruining crops and spreading hunger among tens of millions of feudal age serfs. Then came the Plague, killing at least half the continent. 1/7 https://gen.medium.com/how-the-black-death-radically-changed-the-course-of-history-644386f5b803

2/7 But the Plague also utterly changed everything: The wages of ordinary farmers and craftsmen doubled and tripled, and nobles were knocked down a notch in social status. The church’s hold on society was damaged, and Western Europe’s feudal system was on its way out.

3/7 Survivors from the countryside moved to the city, attracted by the newly unoccupied houses of the rich, which peasants now moved into. For these peasants, there was a new living standard and social standing that no one could have expected.

4/7 That’s the sort of change we are looking at with Covid-19, a new inflection point. It’s by far too early to be certain what’s coming, but here are some of the changes:

5/7 Decoupling on steroids: The post-virus U.S. seems likely to shun ambivalence, move steadfastly away from everyone, and favor self-reliant production located within reach. “We start breaking back into little pieces.”

6/7 A taller China: the post-coronavirus world seems likely to feature a China convinced of its superior resilience. Behind it is likely to be Europe, resentfully let down by a go-it-alone U.S. that, unlike in prior global crises, has pulled in and not led the world response.

7/7 All agree to be surveilled: Just as people have come to expect cameras recording their movements on the street since 9/11, Americans in the post-Covid-19 world see nothing unusual about more intimate measures like public monitoring of their temperature and blood pressure.