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Last week Boris Johnson stood on TV and told the public that we are going to "turn the tide" on #Coronavirus to try and lift the mood.
Of course, he was wrong and of course, he knew full well he was wrong.
What we're witnessing now is the causr of inaction 3 wks ago.
A thread.
Of course, he was wrong and of course, he knew full well he was wrong.
What we're witnessing now is the causr of inaction 3 wks ago.
A thread.
1/ it only dawned on me today how much we have underestimated the virus when I found out how the average of how long it takes to die after contracting #COVIDー19 ... its 23 days.
2/ there are noises coming out of Italy that believe that the match between Atlanta and Valencia on 19th Feb is what in part caused the catastrophe in Bergamo (the worst hit city in Italy). 44,236 attended that match... https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/the-soccer-match-that-kicked-off-italys-coronavirus-disaster-11585752012
3/ Northern Italy saw its most significant rise in deaths 24 days after this match when 368 people died. Obviously there are more components than just a football match, but this provides a clear comparison...
4/ So let's say it takes a day to infect elderly loved ones. 24 days after the match, Bergamo started becoming overwhelmed. This is where we can start looking at the Cheltenham Festival...
5/ The Cheltenham Festival was 10th-13th March. The attendance for the four days was 251,684 - almost 6 times that of Atalanta. These people were also from a much wider geographical area than Lombardy... https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.gloucestershirelive.co.uk/whats-on/whats-on-news/crowds-cheltenham-festival-drop-14000-3949409.amp
6/ If we use 24 days as the benchmark for the lag in deaths, we are looking at the consequences being felt for this between the 3rd-6th April yet we are seeing dreadful daily rises as it is... 570 new deaths for second day in a row https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thesun.co.uk/news/11283723/coronavirus-news-uk-live-updates/amp/
7/ We are already on a steeper curve with Italy if adopting the two-week-behind model and only UK and US showing signs that the curve is not flattening... (this graphic is before today's figures - they would make it even worse) #COVIDー19 ...
8/ all this is based on one mass gathering at one festival. At the same time there were large gigs (Lewis Capaldi 6th March), events and mass gatherings still taking place...not to mention public spaces and bars and pubs full.
9/ Remember the scenes on the day we went into so-called "lockdown"... when people rushed to have one last piss up because their government gave them license to do so? When might the repercussions be felt from this?
10/ So remember when Boris mocked the virus and told everyone he was shaking hands with #coronavirus patients... he was either deliberately misinforming what he knew or hadnt bothered to check... https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1234801752156835840?s=19
11/ This isn't about being political this is about the reality. Looking at the evidence, we are in for some very, very dark days and weeks ahead. The catastrophic decisions taken at the beg. of March will now start to come to fruition.
End of thread. #COVIDー19 #coronavirus
End of thread. #COVIDー19 #coronavirus
