Here's the latest @BBCScotlandNews graph of #coronavirus-related deaths in a few select countries. What does this show us? Here's what I noticed... #COVID19Pandemic #COVID19
1) Scotland - the 50 #coronavirus deaths announced today by the @scotgov took the country's total to 126. Perhaps more importantly though, it saw Scotland's death trajectory nudge back towards the trend line indicating a doubling in deaths every three days. But...
2) England's trajectory is closer to the trend line of deaths doubling every two days. Of more note, is the fact that the number of deaths in England is now slightly higher than Italy's was at that point in time...
3) Lockdowns - where applicable, I've added a diamond on each country's trajectory to indicate when it implemented a lockdown. While the knock-on effect wasn't immediate, we do see how death rates tend to decrease significantly in the 1-2 weeks following a lockdown. But...
4) Look at South Korea which never had a formal lockdown + yet its curve rapidly levelled off. This has been attributed to testing of 20,000 people a day ( https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-52001837). The UK hopes to reach that target...but not until the end of this month ( https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52122761)
5) Meanwhile in the USA, its curve is higher and steeper than any other, as the lack of early testing or lockdowns takes its toll.
6) Community deaths - apparently the number of #coronavirus-related deaths in Scotland (+ beyond) are actually being under-reported. Only hospital-based deaths are in the stats + not, for example, from nursing homes. @BBCJamesCook is on the case ( https://twitter.com/BBCJamesCook/status/1245628128157827074)...
7) Health boards - today's latest @BBCScotlandNews map shows the distribution of the 2,602 confirmed #coronavirus cases across Scotland. NHS Fife has seen the largest increase again (24%) bringing its total number of cases to 119.
One brief addition - @ScotGovFM has since confirmed the high increase in deaths is because today's total (50) includes 10 deaths in the past 24 hours, plus a further 40 from previous days that have only now been confirmed.
And, as of next week, there will also be reports on deaths where #COVID19 is on the death certificate.
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