1. Been thinking more about potential long-term impacts of COVID-19 on our world. When this global catastrophe is over, there are 5 big questions that may determine if humanity comes out of this stronger or unfortunately sets the table for greater suffering in the future.

2. These questions are not just mine but based on an interesting virtual discussion I attended the other night with some very smart folks who have been thinking about these things.

3. And also to say that obviously at the moment the priority is doing everything to address the crisis, save lives, & help people who are being economically battered. But how we address it will be critical to the key questions that will define our world in the aftermath.

4. First Q: Will states become more connected or grow further apart as a result of this crisis? This gets at everything from trade & supply chains to international institutions to how we think about fighting both global warming, pandemic and other transnational issues.

5. We can see a world in which countries all turn inward as we have early on and walls and trade barriers come up. Xenophobia, racism, and border controls. Basically the Smoot Hawley tarrif act response.

6. Or we could see a world in which there is a revitalization of international institutions to deal with the challenges of the 21st century to address questions like pandemics, global warming, migration, terrorism. Like developing the UN & accompanying institutions after WWII

7. Second Q: what will happen to the relative balance of power between China & the United States?

8. Will China come out of this stronger having used its manufacturing base to ship supplies all over the world & acting as international leader & coordinator while the US response remains incompetent & slow & fails to lead internationally?

9. Or will the US come roaring back as it mobilizes after a slow start as it has in the past when responding to major global crises while China is actually hiding a much worse outbreak, is blamed for initial mishandling, & suffers a backlash?

10. 3rd Q: Will this crisis, like the Great Depression, lead to a rethinking of the social contract and domestic welfare state with a whole series of new domestic initiatives to address inequality? Today’s jobs news really drives this question home

11. Already we have a $2 trillion stimulus with rumblings of another major bill on the way. But do we see bigger changes: Medicare for all, universal child care, student loan forgiveness. Many of the ideas that were at the heart of the Democratic Primary gain greater resonance.

12. Or will it lead to even great inequality and a separation between one part of society that will weather this crisis from the safety of their homes (& vacation homes) and the other which is risking their health to make sure essential services continue for everyone?

13. 4th Q: Will this crisis lead to more intrusive surveillance states, or can countries find the balance and take reasonable steps to give up some privacy for health security while avoiding a slide into authoritarianism?

14. We already see some of the results in Hungary and other places where autocrats are taking advantage. There will have to be some greater invasiveness in the US as well as we had after 9/11 but can the right balance be struck.

15. Or since this failure to act was at least partially a muzzling and ignoring of government expertise and lack of transparency can this become a moment in the aftermath to rethink our institutions and make them more transparent?

16. 5th and final Q: Will The Politics of fear or the politics of empathy and competence win out in the aftermath in our domestic politics? This is the purely political question that will to a great extent drive how we respond to the other 4 policy questions above.

17. This moment and its aftermath will be incredibly fluid politically opening up the possibility for the public to support major change as it did after other major shocks 9/11, WWII, Great Depression.

18. Will our political leaders use it to bring the country together behind the principles of global leadership, common humanity, we are all in this together to make big change? Or will they use it to conjure fear that makes us more insular and focuses on blaming the “other.”

19. Here presidential leadership is vital and it is obvious what Trump will do. The question is whether he wins in November. It could be a disaster for not just the US but the world. We see what is happening right now in terms of the Uncoordinated global response

20. But if it is Biden, it’s not foreordained that the world goes down a positive path. It will take bravery, wisdom, & effective leadership not just by US leaders but many of our allies to ensure that once this catastrophe is over we can move humanity forward - not backwards.